A note on the anti-herding instinct of interest rate forecasters
AbstractWith regard to interest rate forecasts, earlier researchers have found mixed evidence of forecaster herding. Using the Livingston survey data, we reexamined the case for forecaster herding. We did not find evidence of forecaster herding. On the contrary, we found strong evidence of forecaster anti-herding. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.
Volume (Year): 45 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Stumpergasse 56, A-1060 Vienna
Phone: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 0
Fax: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 555
Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00181/index.htm
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kenneth A. Froot, 1990.
"New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
2363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Froot, Kenneth A, 1989. " New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 283-305, June.
- Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2010. "New evidence of anti-herding of oil-price forecasters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1456-1459, November.
- Kenneth A. Froot & David S. Scharfstein & Jeremy C. Stein, 1990.
"Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation,"
NBER Working Papers
3250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Froot, Kenneth A & Scharftstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1992. " Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1461-84, September.
- Benjamin M. Friedman, 1980. "Survey Evidence on The Rationality of Interest Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 0261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Scharfstein, David. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1988.
"Herd behavior and investment,"
WP 2062-88., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Dan Bernhardt & Murillo Campbello & Edward Kutsoati, 2002.
Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University
0213, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
- Ronald Bewley & Denzil G. Fiebig, 2002. "On the herding instinct of interest rate forecasters," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 403-425.
- Jordi Pons-Novell, 2004. "Behavioural biases among interest rate forecasters?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 319-321.
- Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2004.
"Professional Forecasts of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's Panel of Economists,"
Working Paper Series
004, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics.
- Mitchell, Karlyn & Pearce, Douglas K., 2007. "Professional forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's panel of economists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 840-854, December.
- Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Forecasting stock prices: Do forecasters herd?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 326-329.
- David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1999. "Rational Bias In Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 293-318, February.
- Greer, Mark, 2003. "Directional accuracy tests of long-term interest rate forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 291-298.
- Friedman, Benjamin M., 1980. "Survey evidence on the `rationality' of interest rate expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 453-465, October.
- Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2013. "Do inflation targets anchor inflation expectations?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 214-223.
- Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2014. "Central banks’ interest rate projections and forecast coordination," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 130-137.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.