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On Learning Equilibria

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Author Info

  • Florian Wagener
  • Jan Tuinstra

Abstract

We investigate an inflationary overlapping generations model where households predict future inflation rates by running a least squares regression of inflation rates or prices on their past levels. We critically examine the results on learning equilibria obtained by Bullard (1994) and Schönhofer (1999) in this framework. They show that an increase in the money growth rate may lead to limit cycles and endogenous business cycles. We suggest an alternative estimation procedure, that starts from the same perceived law of motion, but is more sensible from an econometrician's point of view. We prove that for this estimation procedure there is global convergence on the monetary steady for a large set of savings functions. We also study, in a heterogeneous agents framework, evolutionary competition between the two estimation procedures, where the fraction of the population using a certain estimation procedure is determined by its past average quadratic forecast error. Interestingly, the more sensible estimation procedure is not always able to drive out the other estimation procedure, and endogenous business cycles may still be observed in this heterogeneous world

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 with number 217.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:217

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Keywords: overlapping generations; learning; endogenous business cycles; heterogeneous beliefs; evolutionary dynamics;

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References

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  1. James Bullard, 1991. "Learning equilibria," Working Papers 1991-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Tuinstra, Jan, 2003. "Beliefs equilibria in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 145-164, February.
  3. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  4. Florian Wagener & Jan Tuinstra, 2004. "On Learning Equilibria," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 217, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:3:p:287-321 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
  7. Jan Wenzelburger, 2000. "Convergence of Adaptive Learning Models of Pure Exchange," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1070, Econometric Society.
  8. Hommes, Cars & Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 287-321, September.
  9. Sonnenschein, Hugo, 1973. "Do Walras' identity and continuity characterize the class of community excess demand functions?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 345-354, August.
  10. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  11. Cars Hommes & Gerhard Sorger, 1997. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-051/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  12. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August.
  13. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1986. "Adaptive Behavior and Economic Theory," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages S401-26, October.
  14. Duffy John, 1994. "On Learning and the Nonuniqueness of Equilibrium in an Overlapping Generations Model with Fiat Money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 541-553, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2010. "Dynamic predictor selection in a new Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1492-1508, August.
  2. Orlando Gomes, 2004. "A Continuous-Time Asset Pricing Model with Boundedly Rational Heterogeneous Agents," Finance 0409055, EconWPA.
  3. Westerhoff, Frank & Franke, Reiner, 2012. "Agent-based models for economic policy design: Two illustrative examples," BERG Working Paper Series 88, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  4. Orlando Gomes, 2009. "The timing of information updates: a stability result," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2860-2869.
  5. Cornea, A. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2012. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in U.S. Inflation Dynamics," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  6. Orlando Gomes, . "Volatility, Heterogeneous Agents and Chaos," The Electronic Journal of Evolutionary Modeling and Economic Dynamics, IFReDE - Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
  7. Tuinstra, Jan, 2003. "Beliefs equilibria in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 145-164, February.
  8. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:57:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Mikhail Anufriev & Tiziana Assenza & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, . "Interest Rate Rules and Macroeconomic Stability under Heterogeneous Expectations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-040/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  10. Massaro, D., 2012. "Regime shifts: early warnings," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  11. Orlando Gomes, 2006. "Heterogeneous Researchers in a Two-Sector Representative Consumer Economy," Revista Brasileira de Economia, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 60(2), pages 113-132, November.
  12. Hommes, C.H., 2007. "Bounded Rationality and Learning in Complex Markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  13. Lines, Marji & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Inflation expectations and macroeconomic dynamics: The case of rational versus extrapolative expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 246-257, February.
  14. Jan Tuinstra & Florian Wagener, 2007. "On learning equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 493-513, March.
  15. Lines, Marji & Westerhoff, Frank, 2009. "Effects of inflation expectations on macroeconomic dynamics: Extrapolative versus regressive expectations," BERG Working Paper Series 68, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  16. Tuinstra, J. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2003. "On Learning Equilibria (Revised June 2003)," CeNDEF Working Papers 03-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.

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