Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Learning in an estimated medium-scale DSGE model

Contents:

Author Info

  • Slobodyan, Sergey
  • Wouters, Raf

Abstract

We evaluate the empirical relevance of learning by private agents in an estimated medium-scale DSGE model. We replace the standard rational expectations assumption in the Smets and Wouters (2007) model by a constant-gain learning mechanism. If agents know the correct structure of the model and only learn about the parameters, both expectation mechanisms produce very similar results, and only the transition dynamics that are generated by specific initial beliefs seem to improve the fit. If, instead, agents use only a reduced information set in forming the perceived law of motion, the implied model dynamics change and, depending on the specification of the initial beliefs, the marginal likelihood of the model can improve significantly. These best-fitting models add additional persistence to the dynamics and this reduces the gap between the IRFs of the DSGE model and the more data-driven DSGE-VAR model. However, the learning dynamics do not systematically alter the estimated structural parameters related to the nominal and real frictions in the DSGE model.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188911001217
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 36 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 26-46

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:36:y:2012:i:1:p:26-46

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

Related research

Keywords: Constant-gain adaptive learning; Medium-scale DSGE model; DSGE-VAR;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Adam, Klaus, 2003. "Learning to Forecast and Cyclical Behavior of Output and Inflation," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/01, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  2. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "A simple recursive forecasting model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 158-166, May.
  3. John C Williams & Athanasios Orphanides, 2005. "Robust Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 400, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Working Paper Series 2003-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1193-1224, September.
  6. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-41, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2008. "Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities)," Staff Reports 320, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  9. Juillard, Michel, 1996. "Dynare : a program for the resolution and simulation of dynamic models with forward variables through the use of a relaxation algorithm," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9602, CEPREMAP.
  10. Slobodyan, Sergey & Wouters, Raf, 2012. "Learning in an estimated medium-scale DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 26-46.
  11. Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D.M., 2007. "Estimating the frequency of price re-optimization in Calvo-style models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2032-2047, October.
  12. Raf Wouters & Sergey Slobodyan, 2009. "Estimating a medium–scale DSGE model with expectations based on small forecasting models," 2009 Meeting Papers 654, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Preston, Bruce, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," MPRA Paper 830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Dupor, Bill & Han, Jing & Tsai, Yi-Chan, 2009. "What do technology shocks tell us about the New Keynesian paradigm?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 560-569, May.
  15. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
  16. Thomas J. Sargent & Noah Williams, 2003. "Impacts of priors on convergence and escapes from Nash inflation," Working Paper 2003-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  17. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  18. Miles S. Kimball, 1996. "The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Model," NBER Working Papers 5046, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Milani, Fabio, 2006. "A Bayesian DSGE Model with Infinite-Horizon Learning: Do "Mechanical" Sources of Persistence Become Superfluous?," MPRA Paper 809, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Luigi Paciello, 2011. "Does Inflation Adjust Faster to Aggregate Technology Shocks than to Monetary Policy Shocks?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1663-1684, December.
  21. Milani, Fabio, 2008. "Learning, monetary policy rules, and macroeconomic stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3148-3165, October.
  22. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence," Working Papers 050608, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  23. Carceles-Poveda, Eva & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2007. "Adaptive learning in practice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2659-2697, August.
  24. Paciello, Luigi, 2009. "Monetary Policy Activism and Price Responsiveness to Aggregate Shocks under Rational Inattention," MPRA Paper 16407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  25. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "On the Fit of New Keynesian Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 123-143, April.
  26. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Krisztina Molnár & Sergio Santoro, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy When Agents Are Learning," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0601, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, revised 15 Mar 2006.
  2. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2013. "The Effects of the saving and banking glut on the U.S. economy," Staff Reports 648, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Arturo Ormeno, 2009. "Disciplining expectations: adding survey expectations in learning models," 2009 Meeting Papers 1140, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Raf Wouters & Sergey Slobodyan, 2009. "Estimating a medium–scale DSGE model with expectations based on small forecasting models," 2009 Meeting Papers 654, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Milani, Fabio, 2011. "The impact of foreign stock markets on macroeconomic dynamics in open economies: A structural estimation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 111-129, February.
  6. Fabio Milani & Ashish Rajbhandari, 2012. "Expectation Formation and Monetary DSGE Models: Beyond the Rational Expectations Paradigm," Working Papers 111212, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  7. Dieppe, Alistair & Pandiella, Alberto González & Hall, Stephen & Willman, Alpo, 2013. "Limited information minimal state variable learning in a medium-scale multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 808-825.
  8. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2013. "Fiscal foundations of inflation: imperfect knowledge," Staff Reports 649, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Molnár, Krisztina & Santoro, Sergio, 2014. "Optimal monetary policy when agents are learning," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 39-62.
  10. Cwik, Tobias & Mueller, Gernot & Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik H, 2012. "A New Comparative Approach to Macroeconomic Modeling and Policy Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8814, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Slobodyan, Sergey & Wouters, Raf, 2012. "Learning in an estimated medium-scale DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 26-46.
  12. Herro, Nicholas & Murray, James, 2011. "Dynamics of Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Impact on the Macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 30387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Eric Gaus & Srikanth Ramamurthy, 2012. "Estimation of Constant Gain Learning Models," Working Papers 12-01, Ursinus College, Department of Economics, revised 01 Apr 2014.
  14. Ormeño, Arturo, 2012. "Using Survey Data on Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models," Working Papers 2012-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  15. E. Quaghebeur, 2013. "Learning and the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/851, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  16. Murray, James, 2011. "Learning and judgment shocks in U.S. business cycles," MPRA Paper 29257, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Arturo Ormeño, 2011. "Using Survey Data on Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 3552, CESifo Group Munich.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:36:y:2012:i:1:p:26-46. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.