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The Inflation Persistence of Staggered Contracts

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Guerrieri, Luca

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Abstract

One of the criticisms routinely advanced against models with staggered contracts is their inability to generate inflation persistence. This paper finds that staggered contracts a la Taylor are, in fact, capable of reproducing the inflation persistence implied by U.S. data. Following Fuhrer and Moore, I capture the moments that the model needs to replicate by using the correlograms from a small vector autoregression (VAR). I estimate the contract parameters using the method of maximum likelihood. The correlogram of inflation for the contract model is very close to the correlogram from the VAR. By the same metric, Taylor contracts fare poorly in reproducing the comovements of inflation and output.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2006.0033
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 483-494
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:38:y:2006:i:2:p:483-494

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Christopher J. Erceg and Andrew T. Levin, 2001. "Imperfect Credibility and Inflation Persistence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 19, Society for Computational Economics.
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  3. Luca Guerrieri, 2001. "Inflation dynamics," International Finance Discussion Papers 715, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Sbordone, Argia M., 2002. "Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 265-292, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Buiter, Willem H & Jewitt, Ian, 1981. "Staggered Wage Setting with Real Wage Relativities: Variations on a Theme of Taylor," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(3), pages 211-28, September.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bakhshi, Hasan & Khan, Hashmat & Rudolf, Barbara, 2006. "The Phillips Curve Under State-Dependent Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 5945, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Huw Dixon, 2006. "The distribution of contract durations across firms - a unified framework for understanding and comparing dynamic wage and price setting models," Working Paper Series 676, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Karl Whelan, 2004. "Staggered price contracts and inflation persistence: some general results," Working Paper Series 417, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Rudolf, B. & Bakhshi, H., 2005. "The Phillips Curve Under State-Dependent Pricing," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 68, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2006. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 303-320, March. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "U.S. wage and price dynamics: a limited information approach," Staff Reports 256, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Peter Tinsley & Sharon Kozicki, 2003. "Alternative Sources of the Lag Dynamics of Inflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 92, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2003. "Contracting models of the Phillips curve - empirical estimates for Middle-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3139, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Andreas Hornstein & Alexander L. Wolman, 2005. "Trend inflation, firm-specific capital, and sticky prices," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 57-83. [Downloadable!]
  10. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Adaptive Learning and Inflation Persistence," Working Papers 050607, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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