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Inflation Persistence during Periods of Structural Change: An Assessment Using Greek Data

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Author Info
George Hondroyiannis () (Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department)
Sophia Lazaretou (Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department)

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Abstract

The paper estimates inflation persistence in Greece from 1975 to 2003, a period of high variation in inflation and changes in policy regimes. Three empirical methodologies, univariate autoregressive (AR) modelling, second-generation random coefficient (RC) modelling, and vector autoregressive (VAR) modelling, are employed to estimate inflation persistence. The empirical results from all the procedures suggest that inflation persistence was high during the inflationary period and the first six years of the disinflationary period, while it started to decline after 1997, when inflationary expectations seem to have been stabilised, and thus, monetary policy was effective at reducing inflation. Empirical findings also detect a sluggish response of inflation to changes in monetary policy. This observed delay seems to have changed little over time.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Greece in its series Working Papers with number 13.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2004
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Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:13

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Related research
Keywords: CPI inflation; persistence; structural change;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dimitrios Sideris & Nicholas G. Zonzilos, 2005. "The Greek Model of the European System of Central Banks Multi-Country Model," Working Papers 20, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kai Christoffel & Tobias Linzert, 2005. "The Role of Real Wage Rigidity and Labor Market Frictions for Unemployment and Inflation Dynamics," IZA Discussion Papers 1896, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Belbute, José & Caleiro, António, 2009. "Measuring the Persistence on Consumption in Portugal," MPRA Paper 15116, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Eleni Angelopoulou, 2005. "The Comparative Performance of Q-type and Dynamic Models of Firm Investment: Empirical Evidence from the UK," Working Papers 27, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  5. Sven W. Arndt, 2006. "Regional Currency Arrangements in North America," Working Papers 40, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. George S. Tavlas & P.A.V.B. Swamy, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation," Working Papers 34, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Vit Barta, 2005. "Fulfilment of the Maastricht Inflation Criterion by the Czech Republic: Potential Costs and Policy Options," Research and Policy Notes 2005/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hans Genberg, 2006. "Exchange-Rate Arrangements and Financial Integration in East Asia: On a Collision Course?," Working Papers 41, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Scharff, Juliane & Nautz, Dieter, 2006. "Inflation and relative price variability in the euro area: evidence from a panel threshold model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  10. Gadea, Maria & Mayoral, Laura, 2005. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," MPRA Paper 815, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Constantina Kottaridi & Diego Mendez-Carbajo & Dimitrios Thomakos, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics and the Cross-Sectional Distribution of Prices in the E.U. Periphery," Working Papers 0004, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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