Modelling Economic Time Series in the Presence of Variance Non-Stationarity: A Practical Approach
AbstractAlthough non-stationarity in the level of a time series is always tested (and there is a variety of tests for this purpose), non-stationarity in the variance is sometimes neglected in applied research. In this work, the consequences of neglecting variance non-stationarity in economic time series, and the conceptual difference between variance non-stationarity and conditional variance are discussed. An ad hoc method for testing and correcting for variance non-stationarity is suggested. It is shown that the presence of variance non-stationarity leads to misspecified univariate ARIMA models and correcting for it, the number of model parameters is vastly reduced. The implications of the tests for the hypothesis of weak form market efficiency (WFME) are discussed. More specifically it is argued that the usual autocorrelation tests are inappropriate when based on the differences of asset prices. Finally, it is shown how the analysis of outliers is affected by the presence of variance non-stationarity.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Greece in its series Working Papers with number 07.
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Applied Financial Economics, 2004, 14 (4), pp. 265-278. Titled "The Importance of Variance Stationarity in Economic Time Series Modelling. A Practical Approach".
Applied time series analysis; economic time series; Box-Jenkins modelling; variance non-stationarity; conditional variance; outlier analysis; efficient market hypothesis.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James D. Hamilton & Baldev Raj, 2002. "New directions in business cycle research and financial analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 149-162.
- Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Unobserved Components in Economic Time Series," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 9609, Banco de Espa�a.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Nelson, Harold Jr. & Granger, C. W. J., 1979. "Experience with using the Box-Cox transformation when forecasting economic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 57-69, April.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "Stationarity and Persistence in the GARCH(1,1) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(03), pages 318-334, September.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Eleni Angelopoulou, 2005. "The Comparative Performance of Q-type and Dynamic Models of Firm Investment: Empirical Evidence from the UK," Working Papers 27, Bank of Greece.
- George A. Christodoulakis & Stephen E Satchell, 2006. "Exact Elliptical Distributions for Models of Conditionally Random Financial Volatility," Working Papers 32, Bank of Greece.
- Hondroyiannis, George & Lazaretou, Sophia, 2004.
"Inflation persistence during periods of structural change: an assessment using Greek data,"
Working Paper Series
0370, European Central Bank.
- George Hondroyiannis & Sophia Lazaretou, 2007. "Inflation persistence during periods of structural change: an assessment using Greek data," Empirica, Springer, vol. 34(5), pages 453-475, December.
- George Hondroyiannis & Sophia Lazaretou, 2004. "Inflation Persistence during Periods of Structural Change: An Assessment Using Greek Data," Working Papers 13, Bank of Greece.
- Dimitrios Sideris, 2004.
"Testing for Long-Run PPP in a System Context: Evidence for the US, Germany and Japan,"
19, Bank of Greece.
- Sideris, Dimitrios, 2006. "Testing for long-run PPP in a system context: Evidence for the US, Germany and Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 143-154, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christina Tsochatzi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.