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Implications of structural changes in the U.S. economy for pricing behavior and inflation dynamics

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Author Info
Jonathan L. Willis

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Abstract

Some key features of the behavior of inflation in the United States appear to have changed in the past 20 years, with potentially important implications for forecasters and policymakers. Recent studies have provided evidence of a decline in both the variability and persistence of inflation. ; Such shifts in the behavior or dynamics of inflation would necessitate changes in the economic relationships used by policymakers and economists to assess current conditions, forecast key economic indicators, and determine the implications of policy changes for future economic activity. ; Willis examines how structural changes in the economy over the past two decades may have affected the price-setting behavior of firms and, in turn, the behavior of aggregate inflation. He concludes that structural changes in the economy over the past 20 years have likely contributed to a decrease in the persistence and volatility of inflation.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): Q I ()
Pages: 5-27
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:2003:i:qi:p:5-27:n:v.88no.1

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Prices;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Chirinko, R S & Fazzari, S, 1994. "Economic Fluctuations, Market Power, and Returns to Scale: Evidence from Firm-Level Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 47-69, Jan.-Marc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Mark Bils & James A. Kahn, 2000. "What Inventory Behavior Tells Us about Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 458-481, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Jonathan L. Willis, 2000. "Estimation of adjustment costs in a model of state-dependent pricing," Research Working Paper RWP 00-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  4. Aguirregabiria, Victor, 1999. "The Dynamics of Markups and Inventories in Retailing Firms," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 66(2), pages 275-308, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bruce E. Hansen, 1999. "The Grid Bootstrap And The Autoregressive Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 594-607, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Alexander L. Wolman, 2000. "The frequency and costs of individual price adjustments," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-22. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Domenico Marchetti, 2002. "Markups and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Italian Manufacturing Branches," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 87-103, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Rotemberg, Julio J. & Woodford, Michael, 1999. "The cyclical behavior of prices and costs," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 1051-1135 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Basu, Susanto, 1996. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(3), pages 719-51, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Cecchetti, Stephen G., 1986. "The frequency of price adjustment : A study of the newsstand prices of magazines," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 255-274, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Daniel Levy & Mark Bergen & Shantanu Dutta & Robert Venable, 2005. "The Magnitude of Menu Costs: Direct Evidence from Large U.S. Supermarket Chains," Macroeconomics 0505012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Estimated, Calibrated, and Optimal Interest Rate Rules," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1258, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  15. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2002. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," NBER Working Papers 9069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Beccarello, Massimo, 1997. "Time series analysis of market power: Evidence from G-7 manufacturing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 123-136, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Kashyap, Anil K, 1995. "Sticky Prices: New Evidence from Retail Catalogs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 245-74, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Christopher Sims & Tao Zha, 2002. "Macroeconomic switching," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
  19. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell, 2002. "Has inventory volatility returned? A look at the current cycle," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May. [Downloadable!]
  20. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Winther, K. Tobias, 2008. "Analyzing new profit opportunities: a guide to making business projects financially successful," MPRA Paper 11346, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Levy, Daniel & Lee, Dongwon & Chen, Allan (Haipeng) & Kauffman, Robert & Bergen, Mark, 2007. "Price Points and Price Rigidity," MPRA Paper 1472, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Peter Tinsley & Sharon Kozicki, 2003. "Alternative Sources of the Lag Dynamics of Inflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 92, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. George Hondroyiannis & Sophia Lazaretou, 2004. "Inflation Persistence during Periods of Structural Change: An Assessment Using Greek Data," Working Papers 13, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Laurent Bilke, 2005. "Break in the mean and persistence of inflation - a sectoral analysis of French CPI," Working Paper Series 463, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jin, Hyun & Miljkovic, Dragan, 2005. "Analysis of Multiple Structural Breaks in Relative Farm Prices in the United States, 1913-2003," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19118, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  7. Adam Fein, 2004. "The Myth of Decline: A New Perspective on the Supply Chain and Changing Inventory-Sales Ratios," Working Papers 04-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau, revised Feb 2005. [Downloadable!]
  8. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2009. "Modeling US inflation dynamics: persistence and monetary policy regimes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 455-477, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: from Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0631, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Bilke, L., 2005. "Break in the Mean and Persistence of Inflation: a Sectoral Analysis of French CPI," Documents de Travail 122, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
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