IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedker/y2003iqip5-27nv.88no.1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Implications of structural changes in the U.S. economy for pricing behavior and inflation dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan L. Willis

Abstract

Some key features of the behavior of inflation in the United States appear to have changed in the past 20 years, with potentially important implications for forecasters and policymakers. Recent studies have provided evidence of a decline in both the variability and persistence of inflation. ; Such shifts in the behavior or dynamics of inflation would necessitate changes in the economic relationships used by policymakers and economists to assess current conditions, forecast key economic indicators, and determine the implications of policy changes for future economic activity. ; Willis examines how structural changes in the economy over the past two decades may have affected the price-setting behavior of firms and, in turn, the behavior of aggregate inflation. He concludes that structural changes in the economy over the past 20 years have likely contributed to a decrease in the persistence and volatility of inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan L. Willis, 2003. "Implications of structural changes in the U.S. economy for pricing behavior and inflation dynamics," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 88(Q I), pages 5-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:2003:i:qi:p:5-27:n:v.88no.1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/1659/Implications_of_Structural_Changes_in_the_U.S._Economy_for_Pricing_Behavior_and_Inflat.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonathan L. Willis, 2000. "Estimation of adjustment costs in a model of state-dependent pricing," Research Working Paper RWP 00-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    2. Levy, Daniel & Bergen, Mark & Dutta, Shantanu & Venable, Robert, 1997. "The Magnitude of Menu Costs: Direct Evidence from Large U.S. Supermarket Chains," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 112(3), pages 791-824.
    3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    4. Victor Aguirregabiria, 1999. "The Dynamics of Markups and Inventories in Retailing Firms," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 66(2), pages 275-308.
    5. James A. Kahn & Mark Bils, 2000. "What Inventory Behavior Tells Us about Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 458-481, June.
    6. Bruce E. Hansen, 1999. "The Grid Bootstrap And The Autoregressive Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 594-607, November.
    7. Mark J. Zbaracki & Mark Ritson & Daniel Levy & Shantanu Dutta & Mark Bergen, 2004. "Managerial and Customer Costs of Price Adjustment: Direct Evidence from Industrial Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 514-533, May.
    8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
    10. Chirinko, R S & Fazzari, S, 1994. "Economic Fluctuations, Market Power, and Returns to Scale: Evidence from Firm-Level Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 47-69, Jan.-Marc.
    11. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    12. Domenico Marchetti, 2002. "Markups and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Italian Manufacturing Branches," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 87-103, January.
    13. J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), 1999. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    14. Cecchetti, Stephen G., 1986. "The frequency of price adjustment : A study of the newsstand prices of magazines," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 255-274, April.
    15. Anil K Kashyap, 1995. "Sticky Prices: New Evidence from Retail Catalogs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 245-274.
    16. Alexander L. Wolman, 2007. "The frequency and costs of individual price adjustment," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 531-552.
    17. Susanto Basu, 1996. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(3), pages 719-751.
    18. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2002. "Macroeconomic switching," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    19. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell, 2002. "Has inventory volatility returned? A look at the current cycle," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May).
    20. Rotemberg, Julio J. & Woodford, Michael, 1999. "The cyclical behavior of prices and costs," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 1051-1135, Elsevier.
    21. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Estimated, Calibrated, and Optimal Interest Rate Rules," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1258, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    22. Beccarello, Massimo, 1997. "Time series analysis of market power: Evidence from G-7 manufacturing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 123-136, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Levy, Daniel & Snir, Avichai & Gotler, Alex & Chen, Haipeng (Allan), 2020. "Not all price endings are created equal: Price points and asymmetric price rigidity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 33-49.
    2. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik & Javed Iqbal, 2016. "Intrinsic Inflation Persistence in a Developing Country," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 12, pages 19-42.
    3. Daniel Levy & Dongwon Lee & Haipeng (Allan) Chen & Robert J. Kauffman & Mark Bergen, 2011. "Price Points and Price Rigidity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1417-1431, November.
    4. George Hondroyiannis & Sophia Lazaretou, 2007. "Inflation persistence during periods of structural change: an assessment using Greek data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 34(5), pages 453-475, December.
    5. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jos� M. Belbute, 2014. "Final Energy Demand in Portugal: How Persistent it is and Why it Matters for Environmental Policy," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 661-677, December.
    6. José Manuel Belbute & Leonardo Dia Massala & Júlio António Delgado, 2016. "Measuring Persistence in Inflation: Evidence For angola," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(4), pages 594-606, December.
    7. Bilke, Laurent, 2005. "Break in the mean and persistence of inflation: a sectoral analysis of French CPI," Working Paper Series 463, European Central Bank.
    8. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 667-699, June.
    9. Young, Andrew T. & Levy, Daniel, 2014. "Explicit Evidence of an Implicit Contract," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 30(4), pages 804-832.
    10. Winther, K. Tobias, 2008. "Analyzing new profit opportunities: a guide to making business projects financially successful," MPRA Paper 11346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2002. "Alternative sources of the lag dynamics of inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 02-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    12. Daniel Levy & Frank Smets, 2010. "Price setting and price adjustment in some European Union Countries: introduction to the special issue," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2-3), pages 63-66.
    13. Dias, Daniel A. & Marques, Carlos Robalo, 2010. "Using mean reversion as a measure of persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 262-273, January.
    14. Robalo Marques, Carlos, 2004. "Inflation persistence: facts or artefacts?," Working Paper Series 371, European Central Bank.
    15. Bilke, L., 2005. "Break in the Mean and Persistence of Inflation: a Sectoral Analysis of French CPI," Working papers 122, Banque de France.
    16. Jin, Hyun Joung & Miljkovic, Dragan, 2005. "Analysis of Multiple Structural Breaks in Relative Farm Prices in the United States, 1913-2003," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19118, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. Adam Fein, 2004. "The Myth of Decline: A New Perspective on the Supply Chain and Changing Inventory-Sales Ratios," Working Papers 04-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau, revised Feb 2005.
    18. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2009. "Modeling US inflation dynamics: persistence and monetary policy regimes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 455-477, May.
    19. repec:rim:rimwps:04-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Mónica Correa-López & Agustín García-Serrador & Cristina Mingorance-Arnáiz, 2014. "Product Market Competition, Monetary Policy Regimes and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(4), pages 484-509, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Young, Andrew T. & Levy, Daniel, 2014. "Explicit Evidence of an Implicit Contract," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 30(4), pages 804-832.
    2. Alexander L. Wolman, 2007. "The frequency and costs of individual price adjustment," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 531-552.
    3. Levy, Daniel & Snir, Avichai & Gotler, Alex & Chen, Haipeng (Allan), 2020. "Not all price endings are created equal: Price points and asymmetric price rigidity," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue forthcomi.
    4. Ray, Sourav & Snir, Avichai & Levy, Daniel, 2023. "Retail Pricing Format and Rigidity of Regular Prices," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 1-1.
    5. Daniel Levy & Dongwon Lee & Haipeng (Allan) Chen & Robert J. Kauffman & Mark Bergen, 2011. "Price Points and Price Rigidity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1417-1431, November.
    6. Levy, Daniel & Young, Andrew T., 2004. ""The Real Thing:" Nominal Price Rigidity of the Nickel Coke, 1886-1959," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 36(4 (Specia), pages 765-799.
    7. Richards, Timothy J. & Patterson, Paul M., 2004. "Causes of retail price fixity: an empirical analysis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 117-136.
    8. Watanabe, Makoto, 2008. "Inflation, price competition, and consumer search technology," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 3780-3806, December.
    9. Erwan Gautier, 2009. "Les ajustements microéconomiques des prix : une synthèse des modèles théoriques et résultats empiriques," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 119(3), pages 323-372.
    10. Nakamura, Emi & Steinsson, Jón, 2011. "Price setting in forward-looking customer markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 220-233.
    11. Emmanuel Dhyne & Jerzy Konieczny & Fabio Rumler & Patrick Sevestre, 2009. "Price rigidity in the euro area - An assessment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 380, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    12. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
    13. Maarten Dossche, 2009. "Understanding Inflation Dynamics.Where Do We Stand?," Review of Business and Economic Literature, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Review of Business and Economic Literature, vol. 0(2), pages 209-227.
    14. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2013. "Price Rigidity: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 133-163, May.
    15. Levy, Daniel & Müller, Georg & Chen, Haipeng (Allan) & Bergen, Mark & Dutta, Shantanu, 2010. "Holiday Price Rigidity and Cost of Price Adjustment," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 77(305), pages 172-198.
    16. Denis Fougere & Erwan Gautier & Herve Le Bihan, 2010. "Restaurant Prices and the Minimum Wage," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1199-1234, October.
    17. Wilko Letterie & Øivind Anti Nilsen, 2016. "Price Changes - Stickiness and Internal Coordination in Multiproduct Firms," CESifo Working Paper Series 5701, CESifo.
    18. Chen, Haipeng (Allan) & Levy, Daniel & Ray, Sourav & Bergen, Mark, 2008. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment in the Small," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 728-737.
    19. Keith Kuester & Goethe University, 2006. "Real Price and Wage Rigidities in a Model with Matching Frictions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 152, Society for Computational Economics.
    20. Virgiliu Midrigan, 2011. "Menu Costs, Multiproduct Firms, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 1139-1180, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Prices; Inflation (Finance);

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:2003:i:qi:p:5-27:n:v.88no.1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Zach Kastens (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbkcus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.