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Capital Flows and Speculative Attacks in Prospective EU Member States

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  • Heather D Gibson

    ()
    (Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department)

  • Euclid Tsakalotos

    (Athens University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

This paper examines the capital flow experience of transition economies who are also prospective EU members with a view to shedding light on the likely problems they might encounter with exchange rate policy in the run up to euro area membership. We show that they have been experiencing fairly sizeable capital flows since the early 1990s. We explain these flows using two separate models. The first explains the level of capital flows using panel data from the prospective EU members. The second concentrates specifically on estimating the probability of a country experiencing downward speculative pressure. In both cases, the contribution of domestic factors and contagion is explored. The results suggest that while domestic factors have some role to play, it is rather limited. Moreover there is clear evidence of contagion effects, suggesting that macroeconomic policy in the prospective EU members will be complicated by capital flows in the run up to euro area membership.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Greece in its series Working Papers with number 06.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Economics of Transition, 2004, 12 (3), pp.559-586.
Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:06

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Web page: http://www.bankofgreece.gr
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Keywords: capital flows; transition economies; accession countries and EU membership;

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References

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  1. Juan Ayuso & Maria Perez-Jurado, 1997. "Devaluations and depreciation expectations in the EMS," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 471-484.
  2. Edin, Per-Anders & Vredin, Anders, 1993. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 161-75, January.
  3. Andrew P. Dickerson & Heather D. Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 1998. "Takeover Risk and the Market for Corporate Control: The Experience of British Firms in the 1970s and 1980s," Studies in Economics 9803, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  4. Bruce D. Meyer, 1988. "Unemployment Insurance And Unemployment Spells," NBER Working Papers 2546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Ramon Moreno, 1995. "Macroeconomic behavior during periods of speculative pressure or realignment: evidence from Pacific Basin economies," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 95-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  7. Hans Peter Lankes & Nicholas Stern & W Michael Blumenthal & Jiri Weigl, 1999. "Capital Flows to Eastern Europe," NBER Chapters, in: International Capital Flows, pages 57-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Stanislaw Gomulka, 1998. "Managing capital flows in Poland, 1995-98," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 6(2), pages 389-396, November.
  9. Campos, Nauro F & Kinoshita, Yuko, 2003. "Why Does FDI Go Where it Goes? New Evidence from the Transitional Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 3984, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-56, July.
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  12. Chen, Zhaohui & Giovannini, Alberto, 1997. "The determinants of realignment expectations under the EMS: Some empirical regularities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1687-1707, December.
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  14. Heather D. Gibson, 2003. "Realignment probabilities and reputation effects in the EMS," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(2), pages 314-335, April.
  15. Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "European Monetary Unification," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1321-57, September.
  16. Cardenas, Mauricio & Barrera, Felipe, 1997. "On the effectiveness of capital controls: The experience of Colombia during the 1990s," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 27-57, October.
  17. Ozkan, F Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Policy Measures to Avoid a Currency Crisis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 510-19, March.
  18. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. George Hondroyiannis & Sophia Lazaretou, 2004. "Inflation Persistence during Periods of Structural Change: An Assessment Using Greek Data," Working Papers 13, Bank of Greece.
  2. Theodoros S. Papaspyrou, 2004. "EMU Strategies: Lessons from Past Experience in View of EU Enlargement," Working Papers 11, Bank of Greece.
  3. Stephen Hall & George Hondroyiannis, 2006. "Measuring the correlation of shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 19-34, June.
  4. Hegerty, Scott W., 2009. "Capital inflows, exchange market pressure, and credit growth in four transition economies with fixed exchange rates," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 155-167, June.
  5. George A. Christodoulakis & Stephen E Satchell, 2006. "Exact Elliptical Distributions for Models of Conditionally Random Financial Volatility," Working Papers 32, Bank of Greece.
  6. Eleni Angelopoulou, 2005. "The Comparative Performance of Q-type and Dynamic Models of Firm Investment: Empirical Evidence from the UK," Working Papers 27, Bank of Greece.
  7. Nicholas G. Zonzilos, 2004. "Econometric Modelling at the Bank of Greece," Working Papers 14, Bank of Greece.
  8. Jarko Fidrmuc & Reiner Martin, 2011. "FDI, Trade and Growth in CESEE Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 70-89,112-1.
  9. Dimitrios Sideris, 2004. "Testing for Long-Run PPP in a System Context: Evidence for the US, Germany and Japan," Working Papers 19, Bank of Greece.
  10. Scott W. Hegerty, 2012. "How integrated are the exchange markets of the Baltic Sea Region? An examination of market pressure and its contagion," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 109-122, December.
  11. Heather D. Gibson & Thomas Vlassopoulo, 2007. "Capital Folws, capital account liberalisation and the southern Mediterranean countries," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 60(241), pages 137-165.
  12. Heather D. Gibson & Nicholas T. Tsaveas & Thomas Vlassopoulos, 2006. "Capital Flows, Capital Account Liberalisation and the Mediterranean Countries," Working Papers 33, Bank of Greece.
  13. Scott W Hegerty, 2009. "Capital flows to transition economies: what is the role of external shocks?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1345-1358.

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