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Capital flows and speculative attacks in prospective EU member states

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  • Heather D. Gibson
  • Euclid Tsakalotos

Abstract

This paper examines the capital flow experience of transition economies which are also prospective EU members with a view to shedding light on the likely problems they might encounter with exchange rate policy in the run up to euro area membership. We show that they have been experiencing fairly sizeable capital flows since the early 1990s. We explain these flows using two separate models. The first explains the level of capital flows using panel data from the prospective EU members. The second concentrates specifically on estimating the probability of a country experiencing downward speculative pressure. In both cases, the contribution of domestic factors and contagion is explored. The results suggest that, while domestic factors have some role to play, it is rather limited. Moreover, there is clear evidence of contagion effects, suggesting that macroeconomic policy in the prospective EU members will be complicated by capital flows in the run up to euro area membership. Copyright (c) The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2004.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in its journal Economics of Transition.

Volume (Year): 12 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (09)
Pages: 559-586

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Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:12:y:2004:i:3:p:559-586

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. George Hondroyiannis & Sophia Lazaretou, 2007. "Inflation persistence during periods of structural change: an assessment using Greek data," Empirica, Springer, vol. 34(5), pages 453-475, December.
  2. Dimitrios Sideris, 2004. "Testing for Long-Run PPP in a System Context: Evidence for the US, Germany and Japan," Working Papers 19, Bank of Greece.
  3. Stephen Hall & George Hondroyiannis, 2006. "Measuring the correlation of shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 19-34, June.
  4. Eleni Angelopoulou, 2005. "The Comparative Performance of Q-type and Dynamic Models of Firm Investment: Empirical Evidence from the UK," Working Papers 27, Bank of Greece.
  5. Hegerty, Scott W., 2009. "Capital inflows, exchange market pressure, and credit growth in four transition economies with fixed exchange rates," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 155-167, June.
  6. Theodoros S. Papaspyrou, 2004. "EMU Strategies: Lessons from Past Experience in View of EU Enlargement," Working Papers 11, Bank of Greece.
  7. Jarko Fidrmuc & Reiner Martin, 2011. "FDI, Trade and Growth in CESEE Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1.
  8. Scott W. Hegerty, 2012. "How integrated are the exchange markets of the Baltic Sea Region? An examination of market pressure and its contagion," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 109-122, December.
  9. Nicholas G. Zonzilos, 2004. "Econometric Modelling at the Bank of Greece," Working Papers 14, Bank of Greece.
  10. George A. Christodoulakis & Stephen E Satchell, 2006. "Exact Elliptical Distributions for Models of Conditionally Random Financial Volatility," Working Papers 32, Bank of Greece.
  11. Heather D. Gibson & Nicholas T. Tsaveas & Thomas Vlassopoulos, 2006. "Capital Flows, Capital Account Liberalisation and the Mediterranean Countries," Working Papers 33, Bank of Greece.
  12. Scott W Hegerty, 2009. "Capital flows to transition economies: what is the role of external shocks?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1345-1358.

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