Capital flows and speculative attacks in prospective EU member states
AbstractThis paper examines the capital flow experience of transition economies which are also prospective EU members with a view to shedding light on the likely problems they might encounter with exchange rate policy in the run up to euro area membership. We show that they have been experiencing fairly sizeable capital flows since the early 1990s. We explain these flows using two separate models. The first explains the level of capital flows using panel data from the prospective EU members. The second concentrates specifically on estimating the probability of a country experiencing downward speculative pressure. In both cases, the contribution of domestic factors and contagion is explored. The results suggest that, while domestic factors have some role to play, it is rather limited. Moreover, there is clear evidence of contagion effects, suggesting that macroeconomic policy in the prospective EU members will be complicated by capital flows in the run up to euro area membership. Copyright (c) The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2004.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in its journal Economics of Transition.
Volume (Year): 12 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (09)
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Postal: One Exchange Square, London EC2A 2JN
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0967-0750
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Other versions of this item:
- Heather D Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 2003. "Capital Flows and Speculative Attacks in Prospective EU Member States," Working Papers 06, Bank of Greece.
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- P20 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - General
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