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The Relationship between Inflation and the Budget Deficit in Turkey

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Author Info
Metin, Kivilcim
Abstract

This article analyzes the empirical relationship between inflation and the budget deficit for the Turkish economy by a multivariate cointegration analysis. A single-equation model shows that the scaled budget deficit (as well as income growth and debt monetization) significantly affects inflation in Turkey. The conditional model of inflation is constant and it encompasses a previously estimated model.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 16 (1998)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 412-22
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:16:y:1998:i:4:p:412-22

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  1. Bunzel, Helle, 2003. "Fixed-b Asymptotics in Single Equation Cointegration Models with Endogenous Regressors," Staff General Research Papers 10685, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  2. Luis Catão & Marco Terrones, 2001. "Fiscal Deficits and Inflation: A New Look at the Emerging Market Evidence," IMF Working Papers 01/74, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jean-Claude Nachega, 2005. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," IMF Working Papers 05/221, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Oya Celasun & Gaston R. Gelos & Alessandro Prati, 2003. "Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?," IMF Working Papers 03/49, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2001. "Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation," Macroeconomics 0107002, EconWPA, revised 10 Oct 2001. [Downloadable!]
  6. Heimonen, Kari, 2001. "Substituting a Substitute Currency – The Case of Estonia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  7. Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2004. "A Short Review of the Long History of Turkish High Inflation," Macroeconomics 0404003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ümit Özlale & Kivilcim Metin Ozcan, 2005. "Does Time Inconsistency Problem Apply For Turkish Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 2005/2, Turkish Economic Association. [Downloadable!]
  9. Helle Bunzel, 2004. "Fixed Bandwidth Asymptotics in Single Equation Models of Cointegration with an Application to Money Demand," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 219, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  10. Amir Kia & Ali F. Darrat, 2003. "Modeling Money Demand under the Profit-Sharing Banking Scheme: Evidence on Policy Invariance and Long-Run Stability," Carleton Economic Papers 03-13, Carleton University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Haider, Adnan & Khan, Safdar Ullah, 2007. "Does Volatility in Government Borrowing Leads to Higher Inflation? Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 17008, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Luis Catão & Marco Terrones, 2003. "Fiscal Deficits and Inflation," IMF Working Papers 03/65, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Mustafa Ismihan & Kivilcim Metin-Özcan & Aysit Tansel, 2002. "Macroeconomic instability, capital accumulation and growth: The case of Turkey 1963-1999," ERC Working Papers 0204, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2002. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 1998. "Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 616, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Nina Budina & Wojtek Maliszewski & Georges de Menil & Geomina Turlea, 2002. "Money, Inflation and output in Romania, 1992-2000," DELTA Working Papers 2002-15, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
  16. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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