Inflation, output growth, and stabilization in Turkey, 1980-2002
AbstractUsing a dynamic aggregate supply and aggregate demand model with imperfect capital mobility and structural VARs, we decompose inflation and output movements into those attributable to terms of trade, supply, balance-of-payments, fiscal, and monetary shocks. Empirical results show that terms of trade shocks have a significant negative effect on inflation in the short run. In the long run, monetary, and balance of payments shocks dominate while budget deficits play a limited role in the inflationary process. Demand shocks have limited effects on output movements; output is mostly driven by terms of trade and supply shocks. The results highlight the importance of a credible disinflation program and structural reform that restrain discretionary aggregate demand policies.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economics and Business.
Volume (Year): 56 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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Other versions of this item:
- Sel Dibooglu & Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2003. "Inflation, Output Growth, and Stabilization in Turkey, 1980-2002," Macroeconomics 0306001, EconWPA.
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
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