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Fractional Monetary Dynamics

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  • John Barkoulas

    (Louisiana Tech University)

  • Christopher F. Baum

    ()
    (Boston College)

  • Mustafa Caglayan

    (Koc University)

Abstract

We test for fractional dynamics in U.S. monetary series, their various formulations and components, and velocity series. Using the spectral regression method, we find evidence of a fractional exponent in the differencing process of the monetary series (both simple-sum and Divisia indices), in their components (with the exception of demand deposits, savings deposits, overnight repurchase agreements, and term repurchase agreements), and the monetary base and money multipliers. No evidence of fractional behavior is found in the velocity series. Granger's (1980) aggregation hypothesis is evaluated and implications of the presence of fractional monetary dynamics are drawn.

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File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC-P/wp321.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 321..

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 27 Jan 1998
Date of revision:
Publication status: published, Applied Economics, 1999, 31, 1393-1400.
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:321

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Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC/
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Keywords: money supply; Divisia money; long memory; spectral regression;

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References

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  1. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1988. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-40, September.
  4. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
  5. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  6. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
  7. Shea, Gary S, 1991. "Uncertainty and Implied Variance Bounds in Long-Memory Models of the Interest Rate Term Structure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 287-312.
  8. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-92, June.
  9. Barnett, William A & Offenbacher, Edward K & Spindt, Paul A, 1984. "The New Divisia Monetary Aggregates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(6), pages 1049-85, December.
  10. Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1996. "Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 333., Boston College Department of Economics.
  11. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
  12. Daniel L. Thornton & Piyu Yue, 1992. "An extended series of divisia monetary aggregates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 35-52.
  13. Granger, Clive W. J. & Ding, Zhuanxin, 1996. "Varieties of long memory models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 61-77, July.
  14. Gould, John P & Nelson, Charles R, 1974. "The Stochastic Structure of the Velocity of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(3), pages 405-18, June.
  15. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  16. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
  17. Tsay, Wen-Jen & Chung, Ching-Fan, 2000. "The spurious regression of fractionally integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 155-182, May.
  18. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1989. "Is consumption too smooth? Long memory and the Deaton paradox," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April.
  20. William S. Haraf, 1986. "Monetary Velocity and Monetary Rules," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 641-666, Fall.
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Cited by:
  1. Coleman, Simeon & Sirichand, Kavita, 2012. "Fractional integration and the volatility of UK interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 381-384.
  2. Simeon Coleman, 2008. "Inflation persistence in the Franc Zone: evidence from disaggregated prices," Working Papers 2008/16, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
  3. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 2003. "Long-Memory Forecasting of U.S. Monetary Indices," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 558, Boston College Department of Economics.

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