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Random Walks, Breaking Trend Functions, and the Chaotic Structure of the Velocity of Money

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Author Info
Serletis, Apostolos

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Abstract

This paper examines the times-series properties of U.S. velocity series, using E. Zivot and D. W. K. Andrews's (1992) variation of P. Perron's (1989) test. It also tests for deterministic noisy chaos using the Nychka, Ellner, Gallant, and McCaffrey (1992) nonparametric test for positivity of the maximum Lyapunov exponent. Comparisons are made among simple sum and Divisia aggregates using the Thornton and Yue (1992) series of Divisia monetary aggregates for an extended sample period (1960:1 to 1992:12). The conclusion is that the unit root model cannot be rejected. There is tentative evidence, however, that the Divisia L velocity series is chaotic.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 13 (1995)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 453-58
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:13:y:1995:i:4:p:453-58

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  1. William A. Barnett & Alfredo Medio & Apostolos Serletis, 1997. "Nonlinear and Complex Dynamics in Economics," Econometrics 9709001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ramsey, J.B. & Lampart, C., 1997. "The Decomposition of Economic Relationships by Time Scale Using Wavelets," Working Papers 97-08, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  3. William A. Barnett & Apostolos Serletis, 1998. "Martingales, Nonlinearity, and Chaos," Econometrics 9805003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Oliver Linton & Mototsugu Shintani, 2002. "Nonparametric Neutral Network Estimation of Lyapunov Exponents and a Direct Test for Chaos," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2002/434, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. E Andreou & A Pelloni & M Sensier, 2003. "The effect of nominal shock uncertainty on output growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 40, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mototsugu Shintani & Oliver Linton, 2000. "Is There Chaos in the World Economy? A Nonparametric Test Using Consistent Standard Errors," Working Papers 0111, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, revised Jun 2001. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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