A Single-Blind Controlled Competition among Tests for Nonlinearity and Chaos
AbstractThis is the FINAL draft of this paper reporting the results of a long ongoing competition. The paper now is forthcoming in the Journal of Econometrics. This final version replaces the earlier draft that was also in this archive. Interest has been growing in testing for nonlinearity or chaos in economic data, but much controversy has arisen about the available results. This paper explores the reasons for these empirical difficulties. We apply five highly regarded tests for nonlinearity or chaos to ten simulated data series. The data generating mechanisms include linear processes, chaotic recursions, and nonchaotic stochastic processes; and both large and small samples were included in the experiment. The data series were produced in a single blind manner by the competition manager and sent by e-mail, without identifying information, to the experiment participants. Each such participant is an acknowledged expert in one of the tests and has a possible vested interest in producing the best possible results with that one test. The results of this competition provide much surprising information about the power functions of some of the best regarded tests for nonlinearity or noisy chaos. The simulated data and the code for some of the tests entered into this competition also are online in this archive.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 9602005.
Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: 20 Feb 1996
Date of revision: 20 Sep 1996
Note: Type of Document - Microsoft Word; prepared on Macintosh; to print on PostScript; pages: 49 ; 2 figures: included. The simulated data used in this competition is online in this archive at URL location:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://188.8.131.52
chaos nonlinearity competition experiment;
Other versions of this item:
- Barnett, William A. & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hinich, Melvin J. & Jungeilges, Jochen A. & Kaplan, Daniel T. & Jensen, Mark J., 1997. "A single-blind controlled competition among tests for nonlinearity and chaos," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 157-192.
- William Barnett & A. Ronald Gallant & Melvin J. Hinich & Jochen A. Jungeilges & Daniel T. Kaplan & Mark J. Jensen, 2012. "A Single-Blind Controlled Competition Among Tests For Nonlinearity And Chaos," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201219, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2012.
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
- E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
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