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Long-memory forecasting of US monetary indices

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Author Info
Christopher F. Baum (Boston College, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA)
John Barkoulas (Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia, USA)

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Abstract

Several studies have tested for long-range dependence in macroeconomic and financial time series but very few have assessed the usefulness of long-memory models as forecast-generating mechanisms. This study tests for fractional differencing in the US monetary indices (simple sum and divisia) and compares the out-of-sample fractional forecasts to benchmark forecasts. The long-memory parameter is estimated using Robinson's Gaussian semi-parametric and multivariate log-periodogram methods. The evidence amply suggests that the monetary series possess a fractional order between one and two. Fractional out-of-sample forecasts are consistently more accurate (with the exception of the M3 series) than benchmark autoregressive forecasts but the forecasting gains are not generally statistically significant. In terms of forecast encompassing, the fractional model encompasses the autoregressive model for the divisia series but neither model encompasses the other for the simple sum series.  Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.990
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 25 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 291-302
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:25:y:2006:i:4:p:291-302

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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 1998. "Fractional Monetary Dynamics," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 321., Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1989. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-209, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1991. "Is Consumption Too Smooth? Long Memory and the Deaton Paradox," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 1-9, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1996. "Fractional Differencing Modeling and Forecasting of Eurocurrency Deposit Rates," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 317., Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
  9. Franses, Philip Hans & Ooms, Marius, 1997. "A periodic long-memory model for quarterly UK inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 117-126, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1996. "Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 333., Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Diebold, Francis X. & Lindner, Peter, 1996. "Fractional integration and interval prediction," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 305-313, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Cheung, Yin-Wong, 1993. "Long Memory in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 93-101, January.
  13. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. S. D. Grose & D. S. Poskitt, 2006. "The Finite-Sample Properties of Autoregressive Approximations of Fractionally-Integrated and Non-Invertible Processes," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 15/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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