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The dynamics of a newly floating exchange rate: the Turkish case

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Author Info
Oya Pınar Ardıç
Faruk Selçuk

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Abstract

In recent years, many emerging market economies have switched or are in the process of switching to a floating exchange rate regime. Most of these economies have a history of high inflation and a high level of foreign currency denominated debt. Therefore, the stability of the exchange rate and the dynamics of its volatility are more crucial than before. This paper analyses the dynamics of exchange rate in Turkey in the aftermath of recent float in February 2001. The Turkish experience is a particularly important one, and provides valuable lessons for other countries as the Central Bank is trying to simultaneously contain the volatility of exchange rate and pursue an implicit inflation targeting policy. The reported findings indicate that the Central Bank policies, accompanied with favourable external factors, were effective in taming the volatility of the exchange rate in a relatively short period of time. However, there is a significant real appreciation of the currency during the same period. Given the high level of public debt and real interest rates, the current state of the economy is very susceptible to any adverse shocks.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 8 (May)
Pages: 931-941
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:38:y:2006:i:8:p:931-941

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Reinhart, Carmen, 2000. "The mirage of floating exchange rates," MPRA Paper 13736, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 65-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2003. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate, and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," NBER Working Papers 9828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. G. C. Lim & Laura Papi, 1997. "An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 97/170, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Oya Celasun & Gaston R. Gelos & Alessandro Prati, 2003. "Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?," IMF Working Papers 03/49, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Esteban Jadresic & Paul R. Masson & Paolo Mauro & Michael Mussa & Alexander K. Swoboda & Andrew Berg, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy," IMF Occasional Papers 193, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Brad Setser & Mark Allen & Christian Keller & Christoph B. Rosenberg & Nouriel Roubini, 2002. "A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 02/210, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Fabrizio Perri & Michele Cavallo & Kate Kisselev & Nouriel Roubini, 2004. "Exchange rate overshooting and the costs of floating," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Rudi Dornbusch, 2001. "A Primer on Emerging Market Crises," NBER Working Papers 8326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Ilker Domac & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2002. "On the Link between Dollarization and Inflation : Evidence from Turkey," Discussion Papers 0207, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
  15. George S. Tavlas, 2003. "The Economics of Exchange-Rate Regimes: A Review Essay," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(8), pages 1215-1246, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Ardic, Oya Pinar & Yuzereroglu, Uygar, 2007. "How Do Individuals Choose Banks? An Application to Household Level Data from Turkey," MPRA Paper 6096, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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