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A Primer on Emerging Market Crises

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Author Info
Rudi Dornbusch

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Abstract

Over the past 20 years there has been a proliferation of emerging market crises and a vast accumulation of commentary -- descriptive, theoretical and applied -- highlighting the origins and mechanics of each crisis and of crises in general. And there is plenty of analysis on how to deal with crises both in terms of prevention and of cures. Is it possible now to distill from all this a simple set of propositions that summarize the experience and capture the chief lessons? This paper sets out a few propositions that summarize what is known and accepted. The interest in doing so is to promote a set of presumptions about what is unsound practice with a presumption that it cannot fail to engender, in time, a crisis. At the center of that discussion is the role of balance sheets. Moreover, crises are not just financial experiences but rather involve large and lasting social costs and important redistribution of income and wealth. That makes it especially important to secure agreement on what constitutes bad practice and identify areas of continuing controversy.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8326.

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Date of creation: Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8326

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F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises - The Early Warnings of Distress," IMF Working Papers 99/178, International Monetary Fund.
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  2. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1998. "After Asia: new directions for the international financial system," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jun, pages 177-186. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Olivier Blanchard & Michael Kremer, 1997. "Disorganization," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 38, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Jeanne, Olivier, 1999. "Currency Crises: A Perspective on Recent Theoretical Developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 2170, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Michele Cavallo & Kate Kisselev & Fabrizio Perri & Nouriel Roubini, 2005. "Exchange rate overshooting and the costs of floating," Working Paper Series 2005-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Vasco Cúrdia, 2005. "Monetary Policy under Sudden Stops," International Finance 0510025, EconWPA, revised 02 Nov 2005. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Michael Bleaney & Marco Gundermann, 2002. "Stabilisations, Crises and the "Exit" Problem - A Theoretical Model," Macroeconomics 0207003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Rudi Dornbusch, 2001. "Malaysia: Was it Different?," NBER Working Papers 8325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Nouriel Roubini & Michele Cavallo & Kate Kisselev, 2004. "Exchange rate overshooting and the costs of floating," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 62, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Fernando Tenjo & Enrique López, . "Burbuja y Estancamiento del Crédito en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 215, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  7. J. Bradford DeLong & Barry Eichengreen, 2001. "Between Meltdown and Moral Hazard: The International Monetary and Financial Policies of the Clinton Administration," NBER Working Papers 8443, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2007. "Managing new-style currency crises: the swan diagram approach revisited," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 583-606. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes In Developing Countries," Working Paper Series rwp05-017, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Faruk Selcuk & Ramazan Gencay, 2001. "Overnight Borrowing, Interest Rates and Extreme Value Theory," Departmental Working Papers 0103, Bilkent University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Agustinus, Prasetyantoko, 2007. "Corporate Responses to Currency Depreciations: Evidence from Indonesia," MPRA Paper 6502, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Oya Pınar Ardıç & Faruk Selçuk, 2006. "The dynamics of a newly floating exchange rate: the Turkish case," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 931-941, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Andrea Hofer, 2005. "The International Monetary Funds Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis Prevention and Resolution," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 77-94, April. [Downloadable!]
  14. Juan Carlos Echeverry & Roberto Steiner & Leopoldo Ferguson, . "Hell, Heaven or Hedged: Debt Devaluation and Firm Investment in Colombia," DCBSLA Series 5, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  15. Fernando Tenjo & Enrique Lopez, 2003. "Credit bubble and stagnation in Colombia, 1990-2001," Colombian Economic Journal, Academia Colombiana de Ciencias Economicas, Colegio Mayor de Nuestra Senora del Rosario, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Universidad de Antioquia, Universidad de los Andes, Universidad del Valle, Un, vol. 1(1), pages 151-191, December. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Maurice Obstfeld, 2004. "External Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 10843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Ulrich Thießen, 2004. "Financial System Development, Regulation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Russia," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 400, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  18. Ara Volkan & Cem Saatçioðlu & Levent Korap, 2007. "Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Inflation: The Turkish Experience," Working Papers 2007/6, Turkish Economic Association, revised Aug 2007. [Downloadable!]
  19. Graham Bird & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2004. "Does devaluation lead to economic recovery or contraction? Theory and policy with reference to Thailand," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 141-156. [Downloadable!]
  20. Levent Korap, 2006. "An Analysis of Central Bank Interventions on Forex Market For The Post-Crisis Period," Working Papers 2006/4, Turkish Economic Association. [Downloadable!]
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