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Disinflation, fiscal sustainability, and labor market adjustment in Turkey

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  • Agenor, Pierre-Richard
  • Jensen, Henning Tarp
  • Verghis, Mathew
  • Yeldan, Erinc

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of monetary policy and fiscal adjustment on output and unemployment in Turkey. The model on which the analysis is based accounts for rural-urban migration, a large urban informal sector, flexible exchange rates, a dollarized banking system, and interactions between default risk on government liabilities, credibility, and inflation expectations. The short- and long-run effects of a rise in official interest rates and tax increases are analyzed. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the link between default risk and credibility in understanding the real and financial effects of macroeconomic adjustment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3804.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3804

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Related research

Keywords: Labor Markets; Economic Theory&Research; Banks&Banking Reform; Public Sector Economics&Finance; Economic Stabilization;

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  1. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Ceyhun ELGİN & Tolga Umut KUZUBAŞ, 2012. "Wage-Productivity Gap in Turkish Manufacturing Sector," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(316), pages 09-31.
  2. Pierre-Richard Agenor, 2005. "The Macroeconomics Of Poverty Reduction," Manchester School, University of Manchester, University of Manchester, vol. 73(4), pages 369-434, 07.
  3. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Peter J. Montiel, 2006. "Credit Market Imperfections and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Part I: Fixed Exchange Rates," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series, Economics, The University of Manchester 0628, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  4. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2005. "Unemployment-Poverty Tradeoffs," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, Central Bank of Chile, in: Jorge Restrepo & Andrea Tokman R. & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Edi (ed.), Labor Markets and Institutions, edition 1, volume 8, chapter 5, pages 115-165 Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Peter Montiel, 2008. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Credit-Based Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 423-455, September.
  6. Zapodeanu Daniela & Gavris Natalia & Leac Dafina Roxana & Teudan Ana - Maria, 2011. "A Liniar Model Of Analyzing Inflation In Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey And Croatia," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 445-451, December.
  7. P R Agénor & D Yilmaz, 2006. "The Tyranny of Rules: Fiscal Discipline, Productive Spending, and Growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester 73, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  8. Angel-Urdinola, Diego F. & Haimovich, Francisco & Robayo, Monica, 2009. "Is Social Assistance Contributing to Higher Informality in Turkey?," MPRA Paper 27675, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Yeldan, Erinç & Ercan, Hakan, 2011. "Growth, employment policies and economic linkages : Turkey," ILO Working Papers, International Labour Organization 463375, International Labour Organization.
  10. Dufour, Mathieu & Orhangazi, Ozgur, 2007. "The 2000-2001 Financial Crisis in Turkey: A Crisis for Whom?," MPRA Paper 7837, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008.
  11. Yeldan, Erinc, 2011. "Macroeconomics of growth and employment : the case of Turkey," ILO Working Papers, International Labour Organization 467426, International Labour Organization.

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