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Disinflation, fiscal sustainability, and labor market adjustment in Turkey

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Author Info
Agenor, Pierre-Richard
Jensen, Henning Tarp
Verghis, Mathew
Yeldan, Erinc

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of monetary policy and fiscal adjustment on output and unemployment in Turkey. The model on which the analysis is based accounts for rural-urban migration, a large urban informal sector, flexible exchange rates, a dollarized banking system, and interactions between default risk on government liabilities, credibility, and inflation expectations. The short- and long-run effects of a rise in official interest rates and tax increases are analyzed. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the link between default risk and credibility in understanding the real and financial effects of macroeconomic adjustment.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3804.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3804

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Related research
Keywords: Labor Markets; Economic Theory&Research; Banks&Banking Reform; Public Sector Economics&Finance; Economic Stabilization;

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  1. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. P R Agénor & D Yilmaz, 2006. "The Tyranny of Rules: Fiscal Discipline, Productive Spending, and Growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 73, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  2. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Peter J. Montiel, 2007. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Credit-Based Economy," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 90, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Dufour, Mathieu & Orhangazi, Ozgur, 2007. "The 2000-2001 Financial Crisis in Turkey: A Crisis for Whom?," MPRA Paper 7837, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Peter J. Montiel, 2006. "Credit Market Imperfections and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Part I: Fixed Exchange Rates," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 76, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  5. Agenor, Pierre-Richard, 2004. "Unemployment - poverty trade-offs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3297, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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