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EMU: Ready, or Not?

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Author Info
Maurice Obstfeld.

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Abstract

In this paper I focus on two specific hazard areas in the transition from Stage Two to Stage Three of European economic and monetary union (EMU), as well as on some key problems of Stage Three that EMU's monetary and fiscal structures appear ill-prepared to handle. The transitional hazards are of considerable theoretical as well as policy interest: the best way to coordinate monetary stances and lock exchange parities for a smooth switch from eleven national currencies to a single joint currency. A third problem, one that is central for EMU and to any currency union, lies behind the difficulty of the transition: the possibility of nationally asymmetric real shocks. I review that topic in the context of Ireland's recent experience. The paper goes on to discuss weaknesses in the structure of Stage Three, already much noted, connected with the provision of lender of last resort facilities in the euro zone and the framework for supervising financial institutions. The deficit and debt limits embodied in the excessive deficits procedure of the Maastricht treaty and the subsequent Stability and Growth Pact have been justified by the threat high debts might pose to the stability of the euro zone's financial markets. I consider the past and prospective fiscal adjustments of the EMU 11, and suggest these might pose future difficulties for macroeconomic policy and growth.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of California at Berkeley in its series Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers with number C98-101.

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Date of creation: 01 Jul 1998
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Handle: RePEc:ucb:calbcd:c98-101

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1997. "The Welfare State and Competitiveness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 921-39, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Pu Shen, 1997. "Settlement risk in large-value payments systems," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 45-62. [Downloadable!]
  4. D. F. I. Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 1994. "Determining the Value of a Financial Unit of Account Based on Composite Currencies - The Case of the Private ECU," IMF Working Papers 94/72, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1998. "A strategy for launching the Euro," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 975-1007, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "European Monetary Unification," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1321-57, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Calmfors, Lars, 1998. "Unemployment, Labour-Market Reform and Monetary Union," Seminar Papers 639, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
  8. Kenen, Peter B, 1998. "Monetary Policy in Stage Three: A Review of the Framework Proposed by the European Monetary Institute," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(1), pages 3-12, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Lars Calmfors, 1998. "Unemployment, Labour-market Reform and Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  10. Maurice Obstfeld, 1997. "Europe's gamble," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1997-2), pages 241-317. [Downloadable!]
  11. Robert Flood & Peter M. Garber, 2000. "Is Launching the Euro Unstable in the Endgame?," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 163-182 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  12. Maurice Obstfeld & Giovanni Peri, 1998. "Regional non-adjustment and fiscal policy," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 205-259, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Alesina, A. & Perotti, R., 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Adjustments in OECD Countries," Discussion Papers 1995_25, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  14. Calmfors, L., 1998. "Unemployment, Labour-Market Reform and Monetary Union," Papers 639, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  15. Goodhart, Charles & Schoenmaker, Dirk, 1995. "Should the Functions of Monetary Policy and Banking Supervision Be Separated?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(4), pages 539-60, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mike Artis, 2002. "The Performance of the European Central Bank," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 19-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Nils Björksten & Miika Syrjänen, 2000. "How Problematic are Internal Euro Area Differences?," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 14, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS). [Downloadable!]
  3. Luisa Lambertini & Jose Tavares, 2003. "Exchange Rates and Fiscal Adjustments: Evidence from the OECD and Implications for EMU," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 576, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jeffrey M. Wrase, 1999. "The euro and the European Central Bank," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-14. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Monetary Policy Issues for the Eurosystem," NBER Working Papers 7177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. W. Jos Jansen, 2000. "On the Cost of Moving from a Quasi Monetary Union to a Full Monetary Union: The Case of the Netherlands," MEB Series (discontinued) 2000-1, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Yin-Wong Cheung & Daniel Friedman, 2008. "Speculative Attacks: A Laboratory Study in Continuous Time," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Alberto Alesina & Romain Wacziarg, 1999. "Is Europe Going Too Far?," NBER Working Papers 6883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Lars Calmfors, 2001. "Wages and Wage-Bargaining Institutions in the EMU – A Survey of the Issues," Empirica, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 325-351, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2002. "Monetary Policy on the Road to EMU: The Dominance of External Constraints on Domestic Objectives," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 67-68, pages 13, Juillet-D. [Downloadable!]
  11. W. Jos Jansen, 2003. "Inside the Impossible Triangle: Monetary Policy Autonomy in a Credible Target Zone," Macroeconomics 0312009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Ramos, Raul & Clar, Miquel & Surinach, Jordi, 1999. "EMU: some unanswered questions," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa220, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  13. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1999. "The Future of EMU: What Does the History of Monetary Unions Tell Us?," NBER Working Papers 7365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Calmfors, Lars, 2001. "Wages and wage-bargaining institutions in the EMU – a survey of the issues," Seminar Papers 690, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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