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A Strategy for Launching the Euro

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Author Info
Obstfeld, Maurice

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Abstract

This paper analyses the constraints European Union law places on the 1 January 1999 choices of irrevocably fixed conversion rates between the euro and the currencies of EMU members states. Current EU legislation, notably the Maastricht Treaty, requires that the bilateral currency conversion factors implied by the 1 January 1999 choices equal closing market exchange rates on 31 December 1998. Given that legal constraint, there still exist several strategies for choosing the relative prices of EMU member currencies against the euro. Unfortunately, most of these have potentially damaging side effects. One approach, based on official Stage 2 offers of contingent euro forward contracts with value dates at the start of Stage 3, allows a highly credible preannouncement of the bilateral currency conversion factors to be set at the start of EMU. That approach assumes, however, that no prospective EMU members can withdraw between their selection in May 1998 and the start of Stage 3.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1732.

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Date of creation: Oct 1997
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1732

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Related research
Keywords: EMU; Euro; european system of central banks; Maasticht treaty;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. De Grauwe, Paul, 1997. "The Indeterminacy of the Euro Conversion Rates. Why it Matters and How it can be Solved," CEPR Discussion Papers 1677, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. De Grauwe, Paul & Spaventa, Luigi, 1997. "Setting Conversion Rates for the Third Stage of EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 1638, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1991. "The EMS, the EMU, and the Transition to a Common Currency," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 269-328 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Mussa, Michael, 1976. " The Exchange Rate, the Balance of Payments and Monetary and Fiscal Policy under a Regime of Controlled Floating," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 78(2), pages 229-48.
  5. De Grauwe, Paul, 1996. "How to Fix Conversion Rates at the Start of EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 1530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kareken, John & Wallace, Neil, 1981. "On the Indeterminacy of Equilibrium Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 207-22, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2003. "Comment fixer les cours de change?. Annonces et correspondances maastrichtiennes," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 69(1), pages 39-71. [Downloadable!]
  2. Maurice Obstfeld, 2000. "EMU: Ready, or Not?," International Trade 0003001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Mark Trede & Bernd Wilfling, 2007. "Estimating exchange rate dynamics with diffusion processes: an application to Greek EMU data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 23-39, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Wyplosz, Charles, 1997. "EMU: Why and How It Might Happen," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 3-21, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. F. Bohn, 2003. "Monetary Union and the Interest-Exchange Rate Trade-off," Economics Discussion Papers 554, University of Essex, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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