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Comment fixer les cours de change? Annonces et correspondances maastrichtiennes

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Author Info
Jean-SŽbastien PENTECOTE (CERESUR, UniversitŽ de la RŽunion)
Marc-Alexandre SENEGAS (GRAPE, UniversitŽ Montesquieu-Bordeaux 4)
Abstract

Cette Žtude revient sur la distinction Žtablie entre deux rgles de fixation irrŽvocable des cours de change : une rgle temporelle suivant laquelle le gel de la paritŽ est programmŽ ˆ une date arbitraire; une rgle d'Žtat sous laquelle cette dŽcision rŽsulte de l'atteinte d'un seuil par les dŽterminants fondamentaux. En les replaant dans un cadre d'analyse commun, ces stratŽgies apparaissent en fait rigoureusement Žquivalentes en l'absence d'incertitude sur le dŽroulement de la transition. Une correspondance en termes probabilistes est Žtablie dans un contexte stochastique plus gŽnŽral. Ce cadre d'analyse unifiŽ s'avre un prŽalable utile pour entreprendre une relecture de la stratŽgie maastrichtienne en matire cambiaire et mettre ˆ jour certaines propriŽtŽs du scŽnario finalement adoptŽ par les autoritŽs europŽennes.

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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) with number 2003012.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:2003012

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Related research
Keywords: UEM; Rgles temporelles et dÕŽtat; passage aux changes fixes;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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  5. Smith, Gregor W & Smith, R Todd, 1990. "Stochastic Process Switching and the Return to Gold, 1925," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(399), pages 164-75, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "State- and time-contingent switches of exchange rate regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 361-374, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Djajic, Slobodan, 1989. "Dynamics of the exchange rate in anticipation of pegging," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 559-571, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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