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Turning Points in the Civil War: Views from the Greenback Market

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Author Info
Kristen L. Willard
Timothy W. Guinnane
Harvey S. Rosen

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Abstract

In early 1862, the United States government began issuing Greenbacks, a legal tender currency that was not convertible into gold. The government promised to redeem the Greenbacks in gold eventually, but speculators understood that the probability of redemption depended on Union Army military fortunes and political developments that affected the total cost of the war. To serve the speculative interest in gold, a market emerged for the purpose of trading Greenbacks for gold dollars. Because the market price of a Greenback reflected the public's perceptions of future war costs, the movement of these prices provides unique insights into how people at the time perceived various events. We use daily quotations of the gold price of Greenbacks to identify a set of dates during the Civil War that market participants regarded as turning points. In some cases, these dates coincide with events familiar from conventional historical accounts of the war. In other instances, however, market participants reacted strongly to events that historians have not viewed as very significant.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5381.

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Date of creation: Oct 1996
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Publication status: published as American Economic Review, vol. 86, no. 4, pp. 1001-1018, September 1996.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5381

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N21 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Burdekin Richard C. K. & Langdana Farrokh K., 1993. "War Finance in the Southern Confederacy, 1861-1865," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 352-376, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1980. "Measuring security price performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 205-258, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Calomiris, Charles W, 1988. "Price and Exchange Rate Determination during the Greenback Suspension," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 719-50, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
  7. Romer, David, 1993. "Rational Asset-Price Movements without News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1112-30, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jianping Mei, 1999. "Political Risk, Financial Crisis, and Market Volatility," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-049, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
  2. William O. Brown, Jr. & Richard C.K. Burdekin, . "German Debt Traded in London During World War II: A British Perspective on Hitler," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 1999-19, Claremont Colleges. [Downloadable!]
  3. John Landon-Lane & Kim Oosterlinck, 2005. "Hope springs eternal… French bondholders and the Soviet Repudiation (1915-1919)," Departmental Working Papers 200513, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. William O. Brown, Jr. & Richard C.K. Burdekin, . "Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: A British Perspective," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 1999-29, Claremont Colleges. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gary M. Pecquet & Clifford F. Thies, 2006. "Texas Treasury Warrants, 1861-1865: A Test Of The Tax-Backing Of Money," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 191-203, Spring. [Downloadable!]
  6. Bruno S. Frey & Marcel Kucher, . "History as Reflected in Capital Markets: The Case of World War II," IEW - Working Papers iewwp002, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
  7. Marc D. Weidenmier & Kim Oosterlinck, 2007. "Victory or Repudiation? The Probability of the Southern Confederacy Winning the Civil War," NBER Working Papers 13567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Marc D. Weidenmier, . "Turning Points during the U.S. Civil War: Views from the Grayback Market," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 1999-24, Claremont Colleges. [Downloadable!]
  9. Richard C. K. Burdekin & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2001. "Inflation Is Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon: Richmond vs. Houston in 1864," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1621-1630, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Frey, Bruno S. & Kucher, Marcel, 1999. "Wars and Markets: How Bond Values Reflect World War II," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  11. William N. Goetzmann & Andrey Ukhov, 2001. "China and the World Financial Markets 1870-1930: Modern Lessons From Historical Globalization," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-30, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  12. Josef C. Brada & Ali M. Kutan & Taner M. Yigit, 2004. "The Effects of Transition and Political Instability On Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: Central Europe and the Balkans," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp729, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  13. Vincent Medina & Cyr-Denis Nidier, 2003. "Pricing war within a real option framework * The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not reflect those of the French Ministry of Defence," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 425-435, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Kim Oosterlinck, 2004. "La bourse de Paris sous l'occupation 1940-1944," Working Papers CEB 04-002.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Business School, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
  15. Gary M. Pecquet & Clifford F. Thies, 2006. "Texas Treasury Warrants, 1861-1865: A Test Of The Tax-Backing Of Money," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 191-203, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Waldenström, Daniel & Frey, Bruno S., 2006. "Using Markets to Measure Pre-War Threat Assessments: The Nordic Countries Facing World War II," Working Paper Series 676, Research Institute of Industrial Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Sara Fisher Ellison & Wallace P. Mullin, 1997. "Gradual Incorporation of Information into Stock Prices: Empirical Strategies," NBER Working Papers 6218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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