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Exchange rate dynamics under state-contingent stochastic process switching

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  • Naszodi, Anna

Abstract

This paper offers a closed-form solution of a process switching problem, i.e., switching the exchange rate regime from free-floating to a completely fixed one. An example of such regime change is the adoption of the Euro. In contrast to previous studies on the subject, this paper analyzes a specific case when foreign exchange market participants consider both the Euro locking rate and locking date as uncertain. Preceding the locking, the exchange rate is determined by three factors: fundamental, market expectations for the Euro locking rate, and date. The model is used to examine the conditions under which the exchange rate volatility is mitigated by the prospect of locking.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560611000659
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 30 (2011)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 896-908

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:30:y:2011:i:5:p:896-908

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

Related research

Keywords: Stochastic process switching Eurozone entry Exchange rate stabilization;

References

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  1. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
  2. Égert, Balázs & Halpern, László & MacDonald, Ronald, 2004. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," CEPR Discussion Papers 4809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. De Grauwe, Paul & Dewachter, Hans & Veestraeten, Dirk, 1999. "Price dynamics under stochastic process switching: some extensions and an application to EMU1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 195-224, February.
  4. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1983. "A Model of Stochastic Process Switching," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 537-51, May.
  5. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Stochastic Process Switching: Some Simple Solutions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 241-50, January.
  6. Wilfling, Bernd & Maennig, Wolfgang, 2001. "Exchange rate dynamics in anticipation of time-contingent regime switching: modelling the effects of a possible delay," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 91-113, February.
  7. Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "State- and time-contingent switches of exchange rate regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 361-374, May.
  8. Froot, Kenneth A. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange-rate dynamics under stochastic regime shifts : A unified approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3-4), pages 203-229, November.
  9. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Djajic, Slobodan, 1989. "Dynamics of the exchange rate in anticipation of pegging," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 559-571, December.
  11. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan C. Stockman, 1985. "Exchange-Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 1230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Anna Naszódi, 2011. "Testing the asset pricing model of exchange rates with survey data," MNB Working Papers 2011/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  2. Stéphane GOUTTE & Benteng Zou, 2011. "Foreign exchange rates under Markov Regime switching model," CREA Discussion Paper Series 11-16, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
  3. Reher, Gerrit & Wilfling, Bernd, 2014. "The valuation of European call options on zero-coupon bonds in the run-up to a fixed exchange-rate regime," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 483-496.
  4. Stéphane Goutte & Benteng Zou, 2012. "Continuous time regime switching model applied to foreign exchange rate," Working Papers hal-00643900, HAL.

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