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Testing the asset pricing model of exchange rates with survey data

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  • Naszodi, Anna

Abstract

This paper proposes a new test for the asset pricing model of the exchange rate. It examines whether the way market analysts generate their forecasts is closer to the one implied by the asset pricing model, or to any of those implied by some alternative models. The asset pricing model is supported by the test since it has significantly better out-of-sample fit on survey data than simpler models including the random walk. The traditional test based on forecasting ability is applied as well. The asset pricing model proves to have better forecast accuracy in case of some exchange rates and forecast horizons than the random walk. JEL Classification: F31, F36, G13

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1200.

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Date of creation: May 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101200

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Keywords: asset pricing exchange rate model; present value model of exchange rate; survey data;

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  1. Boothe, Paul & Glassman, Debra, 1987. "Comparing exchange rate forecasting models : Accuracy versus profitability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 65-79.
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  12. Naszodi, Anna, 2011. "Exchange rate dynamics under state-contingent stochastic process switching," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 896-908, September.
  13. Engel, Charles & West, Kenneth D., 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Working Paper Series 0248, European Central Bank.
  14. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
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  16. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the Martingale difference hypothesis," Research Working Paper RWP 04-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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