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Stochastic Process Switching and the Return to Gold, 1925

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  • Smith, Gregor W
  • Smith, R Todd

Abstract

The authors analyze and estimate the effect on the dollar/sterling exchange rate in the early 1920s of anticipations of the return to the gold standard at prewar parity in the United Kingdom. These measures are consistent with a class of models of the exchange rate that includes a version of the monetary model and with any fundamentals that follow a random walk with drift. Contrary to some contemporary views, the appreciation of sterling prior to April 1925 appears to have been due to fundamentals (such as restrictive monetary policy) rather than to the expectation of a change in regime. Copyright 1990 by Royal Economic Society.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 100 (1990)
Issue (Month): 399 (March)
Pages: 164-75

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:100:y:1990:i:399:p:164-75

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Cited by:
  1. Michael Bordo & Angela Redish, 1992. "Maximizing Seignorage Revenue During Temporary Suspensions of Convertibility: A Note," NBER Working Papers 4024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gregor W. Smith, 1995. "Exchange-Rate Discounting," Working Papers 1248, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. Mateusz Szczurek, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Nominal Convergence," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0266, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  4. Max Meulemann & Martin Uebele & Bernd Wilfling, 2011. "The Restoration of the Gold Standard after the US Civil War: A Volatility Analysis," CQE Working Papers 2011, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  5. Michael D. Bordo & Tamim Bayoumi, 1996. "Getting Pegged: Comparing the 1879 and 1925 Gold Resumptions," NBER Working Papers 5497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2003. "Comment fixer les cours de change?. Annonces et correspondances maastrichtiennes," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 69(1), pages 39-71.
  7. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 1994. "The Specie Standard as a Contingent Rule: Some Evidence for Core and Peripheral Countries, 1880-1990," NBER Working Papers 4860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose & Donald J. Mathieson, 1990. "Is the EMS the perfect fix? An empirical exploration of exchange rate target zones," International Finance Discussion Papers 388, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Veestraeten, Dirk, 2012. "Transition probabilities in a problem of stochastic process switching," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 201-204.

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