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Stochastic Process Switching and the Return to Gold, 1925

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  • Gregor W. Smith
  • R. Todd Smith

Abstract

We present numerical estimates of the effect on the dollar/sterling exchange rate in the early 1920s of anticipations of the return to the gold standard at pre-war parity in the U.K. These measures are calculated using a weak version of the monetary model of the exchange rate but are consistent with any exchange-rate fundamentals which follow a random walk with drift. Contrary to some contemporary views, the appreciation of the sterling prior to April 1925 appears to have been due mainly to fundamentals (such as restrictive monetary policy) rather than to the expectation of a change in regime.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 723.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 1988
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:723

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Cited by:
  1. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 1994. "The Specie Standard as a Contingent Rule: Some Evidence for Core and Peripheral Countries, 1880-1990," NBER Working Papers 4860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Mateusz Szczurek, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Nominal Convergence," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0266, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  3. Bordo, Michael D & Redish, Angela, 1993. "Maximizing Seignorage Revenue during Temporary Suspensions of Convertibility: A Note," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 157-68, January.
  4. Max Meulemann & Martin Uebele & Bernd Wilfling, 2012. "The Restoration of the Gold Standard after the US Civil War: A Volatility Analysis," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-251, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  5. Bayoumi, Tamim & Bordo, Michael D, 1996. "Getting Pegged: Comparing the 1879 and 1925 Gold Resumptions," CEPR Discussion Papers 1390, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2003. "Comment fixer les cours de change?. Annonces et correspondances maastrichtiennes," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 69(1), pages 39-71.
  7. Smith, Gregor W., 1995. "Exchange-rate discounting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 659-666, October.
  8. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose & Donald J. Mathieson, 1990. "Is the EMS the perfect fix? An empirical exploration of exchange rate target zones," International Finance Discussion Papers 388, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Veestraeten, Dirk, 2012. "Transition probabilities in a problem of stochastic process switching," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 201-204.

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