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The natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area: A joint estimation

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Author Info
Julien Garnier () (European University Institute and University of Paris X-Nanterre)
Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen () (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

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Abstract

The notion of a natural real rate of interest, due to Wicksell (1936), is widely used in current central bank research. The idea is that there exists a level at which the real interest rate would be compatible with output at its potential level and stationary inflation. Such a consept is of primary concern for monetary policy because it provides a benchmark for the monetary policy stance. This paper applies the method recently suggested by T. Laubach and J. C. Williams to jointly estimate the natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area using data from 1960. Our results suggest that the natural real rate of interest has declined gradually over the past 40 years. They also indicate that monetary policy in the euro area was on average stimulative during the 1960s and the 1970s, while it contributed to dampen the output gap and inflation in the 1980s and 1990s.

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Paper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2005/14.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 06 Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2005_14

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Keywords: Real interest rate gap output gap Kalman filter euro area

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Neiss, Katharine & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Real Interest rate Gap as an Inflation Indicator," CEPR Discussion Papers 2848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Jesús Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald, 2004. "Searching for the natural rate of interest: a euro area perspective," Empirica, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 185-204, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Pilegaard, Rasmus & Stracca, Livio, 2006. "The output gap and the real interest rate gap in the euro area, 1960-2003," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 775-790, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2003. "UK inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: the role of output gap mismeasurement," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 353-370. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jesús Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald, 2004. "Searching for the natural rate of interest: a euro area perspective," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 185-204, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Nicola Giammarioli & Natacha Valla, 2003. "The natural real rate of interest in the Euro area," Working Paper Series 233, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. John C. Williams, 2003. "The natural rate of interest," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Oct 31. [Downloadable!]
  9. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
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  10. Edward Nelson, 2004. "The Great Inflation of the seventies: what really happened?," Working Papers 2004-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Stokey, Nancy L & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Growth Effects of Flat-Rate Taxes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 519-50, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Ford, Robert & Laxton, Douglas, 1999. "World Public Debt and Real Interest Rates," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 77-94, Summer.
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  13. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Stagflation in the UK," CEPR Discussion Papers 3458, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Tellez Corredor, 2006. "La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003088, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Roberto Tamborini, 2006. "Back to Wicksell? In search of the foundations of practical monetary policy," Department of Economics Working Papers 0602, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marco Lombardi & Silvia Sgherri, 2007. "(Un)naturally Low? Sequential Monte Carlo Tracking of the US Natural Interest Rate," DNB Working Papers 142, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Jean-Stéphane MESONNIER, 2007. "The predictive content of the real interest rate gap for macroeconomic variables in the euro area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 102, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rodrigo Fuentes & Fabián Gredig, 2007. "Estimating the Chilean Natural Rate of Interest," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 448, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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