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Asymmetries in Bank of England Monetary Policy

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  • Jamie Gascoigne
  • Paul Turner

    ()
    (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield)

Abstract

In this paper we estimate limited dependent variable models for Bank of England monetary policy using monthly data over the period June 1997 to March 2003. During this period the Bank has had operational independence to set the interest rate in order to meet the inflation target set by the Government. We find evidence that the Bank has responded to current output growth rather than inflation which is consistent with targeting future inflation when there is a lag in the response of inflation to the output gap. We also find evidence of an asymmetry in the sense that the link between the interest rate and output growth is stronger when an increase in the interest rate is required than when circumstances dictate it should be cut. On the other hand there is considerably more inertia for interest rate cuts in the sense that a cut in the rate in one month significantly increases the probability of a cut in the next month which is not the case for increases.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2003007.

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Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2003
Date of revision: Aug 2003
Handle: RePEc:shf:wpaper:2003007

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Related research

Keywords: Monetary policy reaction functions; Central Bank independence; binary choice models.;

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References

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  1. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
  3. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
  4. Dolado, Juan J. & María-Dolores, Ramón & Naveira Barrero, Manuel, 2000. "Asymmetries In Monetary Policy Rules: Evidence For Four Central Banks," CEPR Discussion Papers 2441, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
  6. Bean, Charles, 1998. "The New UK Monetary Arrangements: A View from the Literature," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1795-1809, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Bhattacharjee, A. & Holly, S., 2005. "Inflation Targeting, Committee Decision Making and Uncertainty: The case of the Bank of England’s MPC," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0530, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Kondo, Kazumine, 2011. "Have credit rating agencies become more stringent towards Japanese regional banks?," MPRA Paper 30500, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Sean Holly, 2005. "Inflation Targeting, Committee Decision Making and Uncertainty: The Case of the Bank of England’s MPC," CDMA Working Paper Series 200503, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  4. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Sean Holly, 2006. "Taking Personalities out of Monetary Policy Decision Making? Interactions, Heterogeneity and Committee Decisions in the Bank of England’s MPC," CDMA Working Paper Series 200612, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  5. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski & Agata Miśkowiec, 2012. "How forward looking are central banks? Some evidence from their forecasts," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 112, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.

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