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Modelling and Identifying Central Banks' Preferences

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Author Info
Favero, Carlo A
Rovelli, Riccardo

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Abstract

We propose an approach to identify independently the parameters describing the structure of the economy from those describing central bank preferences. We first estimate a parsimonious structural model for US inflation, US output-gap and the world commodity price index. We then proceed to the identification of central bank preferences by estimating by GMM the Euler equations for the solution of the intertemporal optimization problem relevant to the central bank. The empirical analysis of the structural model shows that the persistency of real interest rates effects on aggregate demand is sufficient to generate an autoregressive structure in any interest rate rule. From estimation of the Euler equations, we infer that strict inflation targeting together with real interest rate smoothing delivers an optimal policy rule capable of replicating the observed path of real interest rates over the sample 1983:1 - 1998:3. Our empirical findings imply that the output gap enters into the optimal interest rate rule only as a leading indicator of future inflation, and we reject the hypothesis that output stabilization is an independent argument in the loss of function of the Fed.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2178.

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Date of creation: Jun 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2178

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Related research
Keywords: Central Bank Preferences; GMM Estimation of Euler Equations; Inflation Targeting;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Marvin Goodfriend, 1987. "Interest rate smoothing and price level trend-stationarity," Working Paper 87-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Brian Sack, 1998. "Does the Fed act gradually? a VAR analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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  8. Richard Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1996. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. John B. Taylor, 1996. "How should monetary policy respond to shocks while maintaining long-run price stability? Conceptual issues," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 181-195. [Downloadable!]
  14. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1998. "The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy," Working Paper 98-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. "Does the P* Model Provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2198, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Berger, Helge & Woitek, Ulrich, 1999. "Does Conservatism Matter? A Time Series Approach to Central Banking," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2001. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions over the Cycle: Some Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2002_13, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Oct 2002. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Stefan Krause & Fabio Mendez, 2003. "Policy Makers' Preferences, Party Ideology and the Political Business Cycle," Emory Economics 0319, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Gilles Saint Paul & Samuel Bentolila, 2000. "Will EMU Increase Eurosclerosis?," Economics Working Papers 449, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Brzozowski, Michal, 2004. "Identifying central bank’s preferences: the case of Poland," Working Papers in Economics 143, Göteborg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Karsten Ruth, 2007. "Interest rate reaction functions for the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 541-569, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Xavier Debrun, 2000. "Fiscal Rules in a Monetary Union: A Short-Run Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 323-358, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Muscatelli, V. Anton & Tirelli, Patrizio & Trecroci, Carmine, 2000. "Does Institutional Change Really Matter? Inflation Targets, Central Bank Reform and Interest Rate Policy in the OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Ruth, Karsten, 2004. "Interest rate reaction functions for the euro area Evidence from panel data analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,33, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  10. Marco BUTI & Werner ROEGER & Jan IN'T VELD, 2001. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions under a Stability Pact," Economics Working Papers ECO2001/08, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  11. Stefan Krause, 2003. "Measuring Monetary Policy Efficiency in European Union Countries: The Pre-EMU years," Emory Economics 0311, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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