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Taking Personalities out of Monetary Policy Decision Making? Interactions, Heterogeneity and Committee Decisions in the Bank of England’s MPC

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Author Info
Arnab Bhattacharjee ()
Sean Holly

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Abstract

The transparency of the monetary policymaking process at the Bank of England has provided very detailed data on both the votes of individual members of the Monetary Policy Committee and the information on which they are based. In this paper we consider interval censored responses of individual committee members in the context of a model in which inflation forecast targeting is used but there is both heterogeneity and interaction among the members of the committee. We find substantial heterogeneity in the policy reaction function across members. Further, we identify significant interactions between individual decisions of the committee members. The nature of these interdependencies inform about information sharing and strategic interactions within the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Working Paper Series with number 0612.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:0612

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary policy; Interest rates; Committee decision making; Expectation-Maximisation Algorithm; Spatial Weights Matrix; Spatial Error Model.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sean Holly & Luisa Corrado, 2004. "Habit formation and Interest-Rate Smoothing," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 215, Society for Computational Economics.
    Other versions:
  2. Jamie Gascoigne & Paul Turner, 2003. "Asymmetries in Bank of England Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2003007, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2003. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Chris Jensen-Butler, 2005. "Estimation of Spatial Weights Matrix in a Spatial Error Model, with an Application to Diffusion in Housing Demand," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0519, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm. [Downloadable!]
  4. Robert Jennrich, 2004. "Derivative free gradient projection algorithms for rotation," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 475-480, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. David Cobham, 2003. "Why does the Monetary Policy Committee smooth interest rates?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(3), pages 467-493, July.
  6. Kerstin Gerling & Hans Peter Grüner & Alexandra Kiel & Elisabeth Schulte, 2003. "Information acquisition and decision making in committees: A survey," Working Paper Series 256, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Sean Holly & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2005. "Inflation Targeting, Committee Decision Making and Uncertainty: The case of the Bank of England's MPC," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 119, Society for Computational Economics.
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  8. Otmar Issing, 2002. "Monetary Policy In A World of Uncertainty," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 4Q, pages 165-179. [Downloadable!]
  9. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Anne Sibert, 2003. "Monetary Policy Committees: Individual and Collective Reputations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 70(3), pages 649-665, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Nolan, C. & Chadha, J.S., 1999. "Inflation Targeting, Transparency and Interest Rate Volatility: Ditching 'Monetary Mystique' in the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9921, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1985. "Inflation and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 530-38, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Belden, Susan, 1989. "Policy Preferences of FOMC Members as Revealed by Dissenting Votes," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(4), pages 432-41, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Aoki, Kosuke, 2003. "On the optimal monetary policy response to noisy indicators," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 501-523, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  16. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1973. "Regression Analysis when the Dependent Variable is Truncated Normal," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 997-1016, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Pearlman, Joseph G., 1992. "Reputational and nonreputational policies under partial information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 339-357, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 605-631, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Geanakoplos, John, 1992. "Common Knowledge," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 53-82, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2004. "Is the MPC's Voting Record Informative about Future UK Monetary Policy?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 106(2), pages 299-313, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Sibert, Anne, 2002. "Monetary policy with uncertain central bank preferences," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1093-1109, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521264440 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Ellen E. Meade & David Stasavage, 2004. "Publicity of Debate and the Incentive to Dissent: Evidence from the US Federal Reserve," CEP Discussion Papers dp0608, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stephen Hansen & Michael F. McMahon, 2008. "Delayed Doves: MPC Voting Behaviour of Externals," CEP Discussion Papers dp0862, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  2. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2008. "The Role of the Chairman in Setting Monetary Policy: Individualistic vs. Autocratically Collegial MPCs," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 119-143, September. [Downloadable!]
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