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How forward-looking are central banks? Some evidence from their forecasts

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  • Michał Brzoza-Brzezina
  • Jacek Kotłowski
  • Agata Miśkowiec

Abstract

We estimate forward-looking Taylor rules on data from macroeconomic forecasts of three central banks in order to determine the extent to which these banks are forward-looking. We find that all three banks are to some extent forward-looking, albeit to a varying degree. In general, the horizons for inflation seem to be longer than for output. We also find that central banks prefer to concentrate on one particular horizon rather than take into account the whole forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski & Agata Miśkowiec, 2013. "How forward-looking are central banks? Some evidence from their forecasts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 142-146, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:20:y:2013:i:2:p:142-146
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2012.684780
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    Cited by:

    1. Aleksandra Halka, 2015. "Lessons from the crisis.Did central banks do their homework?," NBP Working Papers 224, Narodowy Bank Polski.
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    3. Pranjal Rawat & Naveen Srinivasan, 2020. "Inflation Targeting in the United Kingdom: Is there evidence for Asymmetric Preferences?," Working Papers 2020-196, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    4. Aleksandra Halka, 2016. "How the central bank’s reaction function in small open economies evolved during the crisis," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(4), pages 301-318.
    5. Magdalena Szyszko & Aleksandra Rutkowska, 2019. "Macroeconomic Forecast Relevance in the Central Banks Decisions. The Case of European Economies," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(3), pages 257-275.
    6. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2016. "Poland as an inflation nutter:The story of successful output stabilization," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 363-392.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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