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The Operations of the Bank of England, 1890-1908: A Dynamic Probit Approach

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  • Davutyan, Nurhan
  • Parke, William R

Abstract

This paper analyzes the workings of the pre-World War I gold standard using weekly data and a dynamic probit econometric technique. The authors' evidence sheds light on three potentially conflicting motivations underlying bank rate changes: profitability, convertibility, and concern for home trade. The conflict among these goals manifests itself in the Bank's asymmetric responses to inflows and outflows of gold and in the Bank's asymmetric responses to changes in market interest rates. The authors' results are consistent with the view that central bank cooperation played an important role in the workings of the gold standard. Copyright 1995 by Ohio State University Press.

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  • Davutyan, Nurhan & Parke, William R, 1995. "The Operations of the Bank of England, 1890-1908: A Dynamic Probit Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1099-1112, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:27:y:1995:i:4:p:1099-1112
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    Cited by:

    1. Belderbos, Rene & Ikeuchi, Kenta & Fukao, Kyoji & Kim, Young Gak & Kwon, Hyeog Ug, 2013. "Plant Productivity Dynamics and Private and Public R&D Spillovers: Technological, Geographic and Relational Proximity," CEI Working Paper Series 2013-05, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2002. "A Model of the Federal Funds Rate Target," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(5), pages 1135-1167, October.
    3. Greene, William H. & Gillman, Max & Harris, Mark N. & Spencer, Christopher, 2013. "The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) Model with an Application to Monetary Policy," CEI Working Paper Series 2013-04, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Kai Carstensen, 2006. "Estimating the ECB Policy Reaction Function," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 1-34, February.
    5. Carlo Rosa, 2009. "Forecasting the Direction of Policy Rate Changes: The Importance of ECB Words," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 38(1-2), pages 39-66, February.
    6. Rebeca I. Muñoz Torres & David Shepherd, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and the Consistency of Monetary Policy Decisions in Mexico: an Empirical Analysis with Discrete Choice Models," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82, pages 21-46, December.
    7. Ward, Felix & Chen, Yao, 2016. "Rigid relations: External adjustment under the Gold Standard (1880-1913)," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145930, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 1999. "Monetary policy regimes and economic performance: The historical record," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 149-234 Elsevier.
    9. Selva Demiralp & Oscar Jorda, "undated". "The Pavlovian Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Department of Economics 99-06, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    10. Gerlach, Stefan, 2004. "Interest Rate Setting by the ECB: Words and Deeds," CEPR Discussion Papers 4775, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski & Agata Miśkowiec, 2013. "How forward-looking are central banks? Some evidence from their forecasts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 142-146, February.
    12. Stefano Ugolini, 2012. "The origins of foreign exchange policy: the National Bank of Belgium and the quest for monetary independence in the 1850s," European Review of Economic History, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 51-73, February.
    13. Vanderhart, Peter G., 2000. "The Federal Reserve's Reaction Function under Greenspan: An Ordinal Probit Analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 631-644, October.
    14. Grammig, Joachim & Kehrle, Kerstin, 2008. "A new marked point process model for the federal funds rate target: Methodology and forecast evaluation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2370-2396, July.
    15. Lennard, Jason, 2017. "Did Monetary Policy Matter? Narrative Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard," Lund Papers in Economic History 155, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    16. Dolado, Juan J & Maria-Dolores, Ramon, 2002. " Evaluating Changes in the Bank of Spain's Interest Rate Target: An Alternative Approach Using Marked Point Processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(2), pages 159-182, May.
    17. Morys, Matthias, 2013. "Discount rate policy under the Classical Gold Standard: Core versus periphery (1870s–1914)," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 205-226.
    18. Diebolt, Claude & Parent, Antoine, 2008. "Bimetallism: The "rules of the game"," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 288-302, July.
    19. Armin Seibert & Andrei Sirchenko & Gernot Muller, 2018. "A Model for Policy Interest Rates," HSE Working papers WP BRP 192/EC/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    20. Frenkel, Michael & Pierdzioch, Christian & Stadtmann, Georg, 2004. "On the determinants of "small" and "large" foreign exchange market interventions: The case of the Japanese interventions in the 1990s," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 231-243.

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