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Asymmetries in Bank of England Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Jamie Gascoigne
  • Paul Turner

    () (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield)

Abstract

In this paper we estimate limited dependent variable models for Bank of England monetary policy using monthly data over the period June 1997 to March 2003. During this period the Bank has had operational independence to set the interest rate in order to meet the inflation target set by the Government. We find evidence that the Bank has responded to current output growth rather than inflation which is consistent with targeting future inflation when there is a lag in the response of inflation to the output gap. We also find evidence of an asymmetry in the sense that the link between the interest rate and output growth is stronger when an increase in the interest rate is required than when circumstances dictate it should be cut. On the other hand there is considerably more inertia for interest rate cuts in the sense that a cut in the rate in one month significantly increases the probability of a cut in the next month which is not the case for increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamie Gascoigne & Paul Turner, 2003. "Asymmetries in Bank of England Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2003007, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2003.
  • Handle: RePEc:shf:wpaper:2003007
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    File URL: http://www.shef.ac.uk/content/1/c6/06/31/62/SERP2003007.pdf
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    File URL: http://www.shef.ac.uk/content/1/c6/06/31/62/SERP2003007.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Bean, Charles, 1998. "The New UK Monetary Arrangements: A View from the Literature," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1795-1809, November.
    3. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    4. Dolado, Juan J. & María-Dolores, Ramón & Naveira Barrero, Manuel, 2000. "Asymmetries In Monetary Policy Rules: Evidence For Four Central Banks," CEPR Discussion Papers 2441, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
    6. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    7. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Aleksandra Halka, 2016. "How the central bank’s reaction function in small open economies evolved during the crisis," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(4), pages 301-318.
    2. Rebeca I. Muñoz Torres & David Shepherd, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and the Consistency of Monetary Policy Decisions in Mexico: an Empirical Analysis with Discrete Choice Models," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82, pages 21-46, December.
    3. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Sean Holly, 2005. "Inflation Targeting, Committee Decision Making and Uncertainty: The Case of the Bank of England’s MPC," CDMA Working Paper Series 200503, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    4. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Sean Holly, 2004. "Inflation Targeting, committee Decision Making and Uncertainty: The case of the Bank of England's MPC," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 63, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    5. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski & Agata Miśkowiec, 2013. "How forward-looking are central banks? Some evidence from their forecasts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 142-146, February.
    6. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Sean Holly, 2006. "Taking Personalities out of Monetary Policy Decision Making? Interactions, Heterogeneity and Committee Decisions in the Bank of England’s MPC," CDMA Working Paper Series 200612, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    7. repec:zbw:espost:171306 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Aleksandra Halka, 2015. "Lessons from the crisis.Did central banks do their homework?," NBP Working Papers 224, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    9. Naveen Srinivasan & Vidya Mahambare & M. Ramachandran, 2006. "UK monetary policy under inflation forecast targeting: is behaviour consistent with symmetric preferences?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(4), pages 706-721, October.
    10. Kondo, Kazumine, 2011. "Have credit rating agencies become more stringent towards Japanese regional banks?," MPRA Paper 30500, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Jef Boeckx, 2011. "Estimating monetary policy reaction functions : A discrete choice approach," Working Paper Research 210, National Bank of Belgium.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy reaction functions; Central Bank independence; binary choice models.;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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