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Does monetary policy stabilize the exchange rate following a currency crisis?

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Author Info
Ilan Goldfajn () (Department of Economics PUC-Rio)
Poonam Gupta ()

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Abstract

This paper provides evidence on the relationship between monetary policy and the exchange rate in the aftermath of currency crises. It analyzes a large data set of currency crises in 80 countries in the period 1980 to 1998. The main question addressed is: can monetary policy significantly alter the probability of reversing the post-crisis undervaluation through nominal appreciation rather than higher inflation? We find that tight monetary policy facilitates the reversal of currency undervaluation through nominal appreciation rather than inflation. When the economy is also facing a banking crisis, depending on the specification, tight monetary policy may not have the same effect.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) in its series Textos para discussão with number 396.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Feb 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rio:texdis:396

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization

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  1. Ilan Goldfajn & Taimur Baig, 1999. "Financial market contagion in the Asian crisis," Textos para discussão 400, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  2. Drazen, Allan & Masson, Paul R, 1994. "Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policymakers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 735-54, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Working Papers 6620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 1-136. [Downloadable!]
  5. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Baig, Taimur & Goldfajn, Ilan, 2002. "Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of Currency Crises: The Case of Asia," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 92-112, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 98/155, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-1), pages 1-90. [Downloadable!]
  10. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 4898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Andrea Cipollini & Panicos Demetriades, 2003. "Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate During the Asian Crisis: Identification Through Heteroscedasticity," CEIS Research Paper 23, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Hwee Kwan CHOW & Yoonbai KIM, 2004. "The Empirical Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Interest Rates in Post-Crisis Asia," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 575, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Inci Gumus, 2002. "Effects of the Interest Rate Defense on Exchange Rates During the 1994 Crisis in Turkey," Working Papers 0214, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
  4. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Delaying the Inevitable: Optimal Interest Rate Policy and BOP Crises," NBER Working Papers 7734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Goderis, Benedikt, 2007. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates During Currency Crises: The Role of Debt, Institutions and Financial Openness," CEPR Discussion Papers 6217, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2006. "Fighting against currency depreciation, macroeconomic instability and sudden stops," International Finance Discussion Papers 848, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Michael M. Hutchison & Ilan Noy & Lidan Wang, 2007. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies and the Cost of Sudden Stops," Working Papers 200724, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "A Corporate Balance Sheet Approach to Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 3092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & Andre Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Working Papers 10019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Giuseppe Tullio & Afonso Ferreira, 2000. "Unemployment And The Credibility Of Exchange Rate Pegs: Evidence From The Brazilian Currency Crisis Of January 1999," Departmental Working Papers 134, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
  11. Luke Gower & Alan Krause, 2002. "Currency Crises and Macroeconomic Performance," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2002-08, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  12. Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2003. "Revisiting the Interest Rate-Exchange Rate Nexus: A Markov Switching Approach," International Finance 0303002, EconWPA, revised 13 Mar 2003. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Francis Y. Kumah, 2007. "A Markov-Switching Approach to Measuring Exchange Market Pressure," IMF Working Papers 07/242, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Christopher J. Jarvis & Mark R. Stone & Alessandro Zanello & Andrew Berg, 2003. "Re-Establishing Credible Nominal Anchors After a Financial Crisis: A Review of Recent Experience," IMF Working Papers 03/76, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Goderis, Benedikt, 2002. "Financial Crises, Monetary Policy and Financial Fragility; A Second-Generation Model of Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 3637, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Allan Drazen & Stefan Hubrich, 2006. "A Simple Test of the Effect of Interest Rate Defense," NBER Working Papers 12616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Drazen, Allan & Hubrich, Stefan, 2003. "Mixed Signals in Defending the Exchange Rate: What do the Data Say?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4050, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Ilan GOLDFAJN & Gino OLIVARES, 2001. "Can Flexible Exchange Rates Still “Work” In Financially Open Economies?," G-24 Discussion Papers 8, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. [Downloadable!]
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