IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/glecrv/v35y2006i2p145-151.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of Short-term Exchange Rate Movements in Korea: Application of an Extended Mundell-Fleming Model

Author

Listed:
  • Yu Hsing

Abstract

Extending the Mundell-Fleming model and applying the Newey-West HAC method, this paper finds that the real USD/won exchange rate is negatively affected by real M2, the world interest rate, country risk, the expected inflation rate and the binary variable for the time period during the Asian financial crisis, and positively influenced by the stock market performance and the lagged dependent variable. The coefficient of real government deficit spending is positive but insignificant at the 10% level. Therefore, to maintain the stability of the won, the authorities need to pursue expansionary monetary and fiscal policies with caution, nurture a positive business and investment environment to reduce country risk, maintain a healthy stock market, and enhance the central bank's credibility to lower inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Hsing, 2006. "Analysis of Short-term Exchange Rate Movements in Korea: Application of an Extended Mundell-Fleming Model," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 145-151.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:glecrv:v:35:y:2006:i:2:p:145-151
    DOI: 10.1080/12265080600715319
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/12265080600715319
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/12265080600715319?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Friedman, Milton, 1988. "Money and the Stock Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 221-245, April.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld, 2001. "International Macroeconomics: Beyond the Mundell-Fleming Model," NBER Working Papers 8369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    4. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Mark E. Wohar, 2004. "Monetary Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics under Different Nominal Regimes," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 179-193, April.
    5. Michael Schroder & Robert Dornau, 2002. "Do forecasters use monetary models? an empirical analysis of exchange rate expectations," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 535-543.
    6. Ramirez, Carlos D., 2004. "Monetary policy and the credit channel in an open economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 363-369.
    7. Ito, Takatoshi, 1999. "Asian Currency Crises and the IMF," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 50(1), pages 68-93, January.
    8. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845.
    9. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    10. Osman Suliman, 2005. "Interest rate volatility, exchange rates, and external contagion," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(12), pages 883-894.
    11. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall.
    12. Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
    13. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 2002. "Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of Currency Crises: The Case of Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 92-112, February.
    14. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    15. Fujii, Eiji, 2002. "Exchange Rate and Price Adjustments in the Aftermath of the Asian Crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, January.
    16. Robert Dekle & Cheng Hsiao & Siyan Wang, 2001. "Do High Interest Rates Appreciate Exchange Rates During Crisis? The Korean Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(3), pages 359-380, July.
    17. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Patricia C. Mosser, 2002. "The monetary transmission mechanism: some answers and further questions," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 15-26.
    18. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    19. David M. Gould & Steven B. Kamin, 1999. "The impact of monetary policy on exchange rates during financial crises," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    20. Dekle, Robert & Hsiao, Cheng & Wang, Siyan, 2001. "Do High Interest Rates Appreciate Exchange Rates during Crisis? The Korean Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(3), pages 359-380, July.
    21. Hyeon-Seung Huh, 1999. "How well does the Mundell-Fleming model fit Australian data since the collapse of Bretton Woods?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 397-407.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. HSING, Yu, 2006. "Determinants Of Exchange Rate Fluctuations For Venezuela: Application Of An Extended Mundell-Fleming Model," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(1).
    2. Yu Hsing, 2010. "Analysis of movements in the AUD/USD exchange rate: comparison of four major models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(6), pages 575-580.
    3. JamesR. Lothian & MarkP. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
    4. Yu Hsing, 2006. "Responses of output in Poland to shocks to the exchange rate, the stock price, and other macroeconomic variables: a VAR model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(15), pages 1017-1022.
    5. Hsing, Yu, 2009. "Analysis of the Behavior of the New Zealand Dollar Exchange Rate: Comparison of Four Major Models," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 5(1-2), pages 1-10, March.
    6. Tsangyao Chang & Hsu-Ling Chang & Ken Hung & Chi-Wei Su, 2012. "Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity for Germany's real exchange rate relative to its major trading partners," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 197-202, February.
    7. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Demetriades, Panicos O., 2005. "Monetary policy and the exchange rate during the Asian crisis: identification through heteroscedasticity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 39-53, February.
    8. Chi-Wei Su & Tsangyao Chang & Yu-Shao Liu, 2012. "Revisiting purchasing power parity for African countries: with nonlinear panel unit-root tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(25), pages 3263-3273, September.
    9. Su, Chi-Wei & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Chang, Tsangyao & Yin, Kedong, 2014. "Monetary convergence in East Asian countries relative to China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 228-237.
    10. He, Huizhen & Chang, Tsangyao, 2013. "Purchasing power parity in transition countries: Sequential panel selection method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 604-609.
    11. Vincent Bouvatier, 2007. "Are International Interest Rate Differentials Driven by the Risk Premium? The Case of Asian Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(6), pages 1-14.
    12. Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael Rebitzky & Michael Schroder, 2008. "Do dollar forecasters believe too much in PPP?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 261-270.
    13. Michael Frömmel & Darko B. Vukovic & Jinyuan Wu, 2022. "The Dollar Exchange Rate, Adjustment to the Purchasing Power Parity, and the Interest Rate Differential," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(23), pages 1-17, November.
    14. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2007:i:6:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Tsangyao Chang & Chi-Wei Su & Yu-Shao Liu, 2012. "Purchasing power parity with nonlinear threshold unit root test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 839-842, June.
    16. Demetrescu, Matei & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2023. "Transformed regression-based long-horizon predictability tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    17. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    18. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Hu, Yu-Hau, 2009. "New evidence on nominal exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1045-1063, October.
    19. Yang-Cheng Ralph Lu & Tsangyao Chang & Chi-Chen Chiu & Han-Wen Tzeng, 2011. "Revisiting purchasing power parity for 16 Latin American countries: panel SURADF tests," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 251-255.
    20. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2012. "Purchasing Power Parity between the UK and the Euro Area," Working Papers 1208, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    21. Hsing, Y, 2009. "Functional Forms and PPP: The Case of Canada, the EU, Japan, and the U.K," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:glecrv:v:35:y:2006:i:2:p:145-151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RGER20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.