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Determinants Of Exchange Rate Fluctuations For Venezuela: Application Of An Extended Mundell-Fleming Model

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  • HSING, Yu
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Abstract

Applying and extending the Mundell-Fleming model, this study attempts to examine the behavior of short-term real exchange rates for Venezuela. It finds that the real effective exchange rate is positively associated with real government deficit spending and negatively influenced by real M2, the world interest rate, county risk, and the expected inflation rate. Hence, the authorities need to exercise fiscal discipline so that deficit spending would not be too large to cause real appreciation and hurt exports. When country risk rises due to the financial, economic or political factors, real exchange rates would depreciate.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

Volume (Year): 6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:6:y:2006:i:1_10

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Related research

Keywords: Real Effective Exchange Rate; Country Risk; World Interest Rate; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy;

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References

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  1. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," NBER Working Papers 10607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Michael Schroder & Robert Dornau, 2002. "Do forecasters use monetary models? an empirical analysis of exchange rate expectations," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 535-543.
  3. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2004:i:6:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Hilde Bjørnland, 2004. "Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate in Venezuela," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(6), pages 1-8.
  5. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 1997. "The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the Post-Bretton Woods Period," CEPR Discussion Papers 1730, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  7. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  8. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1988. "Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomics: A Selective Survey," NBER Working Papers 2775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Osman Suliman, 2005. "Interest rate volatility, exchange rates, and external contagion," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(12), pages 883-894.
  10. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio & Wohar, Mark E, 2003. "Monetary Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics under Different Nominal Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 3983, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Philip Hans Franses & Dick van Dijk & Andre Lucas, 2004. "Short patches of outliers, ARCH and volatility modelling," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 221-231.
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