IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/reveco/reco_0035-2764_2001_num_52_2_410313.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Attaques spéculatives et crédibilité du régime de change. Quel arbitrage pour le policy-mix ?

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Pierre Allegret
  • Marie-Noëlle Calès

Abstract

[fre] Les crises asiatique et brésilienne ont intensifié le débat relatif à la politique économique à mettre en œuvre par les autorités face à une crise de change. L'augmentation des taux d'intérêt accompagnée d'une politique budgétaire restrictive peut se révéler contreproductive eu égard à l'objectif de stabilisation du change. Cet article analyse la question de la crédibilité du policy-mix mis en œuvre par les autorités pour contrer une crise de change. La perspective adoptée se situe dans la lignée des travaux développés en termes de crise de crédibilité mais elle s'en démarque en introduisant explicitement la politique budgétaire dans l'analyse. Le modèle suggère qu'une politique budgétaire restrictive n'est pas nécessairement la décision la plus crédible. [eng] Speculative attacks and credibility of exchange rate regime: what policy-mix trade-off?. . Since the Asian and Brazilian exchange rate crises have occurred, the reaction of authorities has been the subject of an intense debate. Indeed, coping with a speculative attack, domestic authorities both increase interest rates and contract fiscal policy. It appears that such a combination of policy instruments is counter­productive. This paper analyses the credibility of the policy-mix used by authorities. But, opposite to traditional credibility models, fiscal policy is explicitly introduced in the loss function of the authorities. The model suggests that a restrictive fiscal policy is not necessary a credible decision to defence the exchange rate target.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Pierre Allegret & Marie-Noëlle Calès, 2001. "Attaques spéculatives et crédibilité du régime de change. Quel arbitrage pour le policy-mix ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(2), pages 249-264.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_2001_num_52_2_410313
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.2001.410313
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.2001.410313
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/reco.2001.410313
    Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/reco_0035-2764_2001_num_52_2_410313
    Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3406/reco.2001.410313?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Patrick Artus, 1995. "Effets internes et internationaux de l'indépendance des banques centrales," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(3), pages 857-867.
    3. Bensaid, Bernard & Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "The instability of fixed exchange rate systems when raising the nominal interest rate is costly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1461-1478, August.
    4. Moreno, R. & Pasadilla, G. & Remolona, E., 1998. "Asia's Financial Crisis: Lessons and Policy Responses," Papers 98-02, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
    5. Allan Drazen & Paul R. Masson, 1994. "Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 735-754.
    6. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    7. Ilan Goldfajn & Poonam Gupta, 2003. "Does Monetary Policy Stabilize the Exchange Rate Following a Currency Crisis?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 1-5.
    8. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 1997/079, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Ms. Gabriela Basurto, 2000. "The Interest Rate-Exchange Rate Nexus in the Asian Crisis Countries," IMF Working Papers 2000/019, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. De Grauwe, Paul, 1997. "Exchange Rate Arrangements between the Ins and the Outs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Demetriades, Panicos O., 2005. "Monetary policy and the exchange rate during the Asian crisis: identification through heteroscedasticity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 39-53, February.
    3. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
    4. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November.
    5. Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger & Benedikt Goderis, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates during Currency Crises: the Role of Debt, Institutions, and Financial Openness," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 559-575, August.
    6. Brana, Sophie & Chenaf-Nicet, Dalila, 2001. "Indicateurs avancés de crise de change : un examen critique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(4), pages 569-592, décembre.
    7. Drazen, Allan, 2000. "Interest-rate and borrowing defense against speculative attack," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 303-348, December.
    8. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 35, European Central Bank.
    9. Sweta C. Saxena, 2004. "The Changing Nature of Currency Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 321-350, July.
    10. Árvai, Zsófia & Vincze, János, 1998. "Valuták sebezhetősége pénzügyi válságok a kilencvenes években [Vulnerability of currencies financial crises in the nineties]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 509-533.
    11. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
    12. Korkut Erturk, 2003. "On the Changing Nature of Currency Crises," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2003_02, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    13. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
    14. Preslava Kovatchevska, 2000. "The Banking and Currency Crises in Bulgaria: 1996 - 1997," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0204, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    15. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
    16. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Goderis, B., 2002. "Financial crises, monetary policy and financial fragility : A second-generation model of currency crises," Other publications TiSEM d2ccad44-44f6-40d8-9be0-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. Ari, Ali, 2008. "An Early Warning Signals Approach for Currency Crises: The Turkish Case," MPRA Paper 25858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    18. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2001. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1155-1197, December.
    19. Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2000. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14, pages 11-78, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_2001_num_52_2_410313. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Equipe PERSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/reco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.