Attaques spéculatives et crédibilité du régime de change. Quel arbitrage pour le policy-mix ?

Since the Asian and Brazilian exchange rate crises have occurred, the reaction of authorities has been the subject of an intense debate. Indeed, coping with a speculative attack, domestic authorities both increase interest rates and contract fiscal policy. It appears that such a combination of policy instruments is counterproductive. This paper analyses the credibility of the policy-mix used by authorities. But, opposite to traditional credibility models, fiscal policy is explicitly introduced in the loss function of the authorities. The model suggests that a restrictive fiscal policy is not necessary a credible decision to defence the exchange rate target. Classification JEL : E5 ; E6 ; F4