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The Banking and Currency Crises in Bulgaria: 1996 - 1997

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  • Preslava Kovatchevska
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    Abstract

    The paper examines the nature of the Bulgarian banking and currency crises in 1996.1997 and evaluates the causal link between them. The analysis shows that the banking crisis has resulted from slow structural reforms, inefficient prudential regulation and prolonged unsound lending practices. The probit model estimates illustrate that excessive credit, augmented interest rate spread and overvalued exchange rate exacerbated the banks' liquidity position. The currency crisis was a consequence of expansionary monetary policy, which led to irreversible depletion of international reserves and caused eventual collapse of the exchange rate. The probit estimations found real exchange rate, money multiplier, interest rate, current account balance, ratio of broad money to reserves and credit expansion to be the most relevant indicators of the balance-of-payment crisis. The causal link between the twin crises is explained through expansionary monetary policy that comes as a response to the banking crisis. It focuses on the inability of the central bank to sustain the exchange rate when it faces a run on its reserves.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research in its series CASE Network Studies and Analyses with number 0204.

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    Length: 40 Pages
    Date of creation: 2000
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0204

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    Keywords: banking crisis; currency crisis; Bulgaria;

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    1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
    2. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
    5. Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1995. "The Collapse of the Mexican Peso: What Have We Learned?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1724, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    6. Patrick Honohan, 1997. "Banking system failures in developing and transition countries: Diagnosis and predictions," BIS Working Papers 39, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    8. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-34, May.
    10. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model," Working Paper 98-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    11. Blackburn, Keith & Sola, Martin, 1993. " Speculative Currency Attacks and Balance of Payments Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 119-44, June.
    12. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/87, International Monetary Fund.
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