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Money does Granger-cause output in the bivariate output-money relation

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Author Info
Lawrence J. Christiano
Lars Ljungqvist

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Abstract

A bivariate Granger-causality test on money and output finds statistically significant causality when data are measured in log levels, but not when they are measured in first differences of the logs. Which of these results is right? The answer to that question matters because a finding of no Granger-causality from money to output would substantially embarrass existing business cycle models in which money plays an important role [Eichenbaum and Singleton (1986)]. Monte Carlo simulation experiments indicate that, most probably, the first difference results reflect lack of power, whereas the level results reflect Granger-causality that is actually in the data.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 108.

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Date of creation: 1987
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Monetary Economics (Vol.22, n.2, September 1988, pp.217-235)
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:108

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Keywords: Monetary theory ; Money theory;

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  1. Lawrence J Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2003. "How do Canadian hours worked respond to a technology shock?," International Finance Discussion Papers 774, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1987. "Why is consumption less volatile than income?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 2-20. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bernd Hayo, 1998. "Money-Output Granger Causality Revisited: An Empirical Analysis of EU Countries," Macroeconomics 9809009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2003. "What happens after a technology shock?," International Finance Discussion Papers 768, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Ramesh Mohan, 2006. "Causal Relationship Between Savings And Economic Growth In Countries With Different Income Levels," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 5(3), pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "Efficient Tests of Long-Run Causation in Trivariate VAR Processes with a Rolling Window Study of the Money-Income Relationship," Working Papers 0413, Florida International University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Richard M. Todd, 2000. "The Conventional Treatment of Seasonality in Business Cycle Analysis: Does it Create Distortions?," NBER Technical Working Papers 0266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality," NBER Working Papers 2228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1989. "Unit Roots in Real GNP: Do We Know, and Do We Care?," NBER Working Papers 3130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. A. Warne, . "Causality in Nonlinear Models," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1996-26, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  12. P. Rothman & D.J.C. van Dijk & P.H.B.F. Franses, 1999. "A multivariate STAR analysis of the relationship between money and output," Econometric Institute Report 170, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Yash P. Mehra, 1987. "Velocity and the variability of money growth: evidence from Granger- causality tests reevaluated," Working Paper 87-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  14. James B. Bullard, 1991. "The FOMC in 1990: onset of recession," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 31-53. [Downloadable!]
  15. Fernando Barran & Virginie Coudert & Benoit Mojon, 1995. "Interest Rates, Banking Spreads and Credit Supply : The Real Effects," Working Papers 1995-01, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Norman R. Swanson, 2000. "An Out of Sample Test for Granger Causality," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0362, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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