Velocity and the variability of money growth: evidence from Granger- causality tests reevaluated
AbstractHall and Nobel (1987) use the Granger-causality test to show that volatility influences velocity, leading them to conclude that the recent decline in the velocity of Ml is due to increased volatility of money growth which is alleged to be caused by the Federal Reserve's new operating procedures. This note shows that such a conclusion is unwarranted, because the causality result reported in their paper is not robust. When the test is implemented either using first differences of the volatility variable or using the volatility and velocity variables that are based on the broad definition of money or over the sample period that includes the 1985-86 episode of the decline in the velocity of Ml, then the test results do not support the inference that volatility influences velocity.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its series Working Paper with number 87-02.
Date of creation: 1987
Date of revision:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Wenninger, 1986. "Responsiveness of interest rate spreads and deposit flows to changes in market rates," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aut, pages 1-10.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Lars Ljungqvist, 1987. "Money does Granger-cause output in the bivariate output-money relation," Staff Report 108, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1987. "Portfolio Substitution And Recent M1 Behavior," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 5(1), pages 54-63, 01.
- Friedman, Milton, 1983. "Monetary Variability: United States and Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 339-43, August.
- Mascaro, Angelo & Meltzer, Allan H., 1983. "Long- and short-term interest rates in a risky world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 485-518, November.
- Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
- Ohanian, Lee E., 1988. "The spurious effects of unit roots on vector autoregressions : A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 251-266, November.
- Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.