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Economic News and the Impact of Trading on Bond Prices

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Author Info
T. Clifton Green (Goizueta Business School, Emory University)
Abstract

This paper studies the impact of trading on government bond prices surrounding the release of macroeconomic news. The results show a significant increase in the informational role of trading following economic announcements, which suggests the release of public information increases the level of information asymmetry in the government bond market. The informational role of trading is greater after announcements with a larger initial price impact, and the relation is associated with the surprise component of the announcement and the precision of the public information. The results provide evidence that government bond order flow reveals fundamental information about riskless rates. Copyright 2004 by The American Finance Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 59 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (06)
Pages: 1201-1234
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1201-1234

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  1. Mardi Dungey & Charles Goodhart & Demosthenes Tambakis, 2005. "The Us Treasury Market In August 1998: Untangling The Effects Og Hong Kong And Russia With High Frequency Data," CAMA Working Papers 2005-25, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Asani Sarkar & Robert A. Schwartz, 2007. "Market sidedness: insights into motives for trade initiation," Staff Reports 292, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  3. Albert J. Menkveld & Asani Sarkar & Michel van der Wel, 2007. "Macro News, Riskfree Rates, and the Intermediary," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-086/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  4. Albert J. Menkveld & Asani Sarkar & Michel van der Wel, 2007. "Macro news, risk-free rates, and the intermediary: customer orders for thirty-year Treasury futures," Staff Reports 307, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  5. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2005. "International capital flows and U.S. interest rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 840, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  6. Michael J. Fleming & Joshua V. Rosenberg, 2007. "How do treasury dealers manage their positions?," Staff Reports 299, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  7. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2005. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp103, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  8. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2007. "Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-357, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  9. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2006. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 12560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Chris D'Souza & Ingrid Lo & Stephen Sapp, 2007. "Price Formation and Liquidity Provision in Short-Term Fixed Income Markets," Working Papers 07-27, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  11. Albuquerque, Rui & Vega, Clara, 2006. "Asymmetric Information in the Stock Market: Economic News and Co-movement," CEPR Discussion Papers 5598, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Jochen R. Andritzky & Geoffrey J. Bannister & Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2005. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Emerging Market Bonds," IMF Working Papers 05/83, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Coluzzi, Chiara & Ginebri, Sergio & Turco, Manuel, 2008. "Measuring and Analyzing the Liquidity of the Italian Treasury Security Wholesale Secondary Market," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp08044, University of Molise, Dept. SEGeS. [Downloadable!]
  14. Mardi Dungey & Michael McKenzie & Vanessa Smith, 2007. "Empirical Evidence On Jumps In The Term Structure Of The Us Treasury Market," CAMA Working Papers 2007-25, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  15. Bruce Mizrach & Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "Price discovery in the U.S. treasury market," Working Papers 2005-070, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  16. Jón Daníelsson & Ryan Love, 2006. "Feedback trading

    This paper is also available at www.riskresearch.org

    ," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 35-53. [Downloadable!]
  17. Marco Pagano & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2004. "The European Bond Markets under EMU," CSEF Working Papers 126, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Salerno, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Evans, Kevin & Speight, Alan, 2006. "Dynamic News Effects in High Frequency Euro Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility," Cardiff Accounting and Finance Working Papers A2006/4, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Accounting and Finance Section. [Downloadable!]
  19. Menkveld, Albert J. & Cheung, Yiu C. & Jong, Frank de, 2006. "Euro-Area Sovereign Yield Dynamics: the role of order imbalance," Serie Research Memoranda 0006, Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Chris D'Souza & Charles Gaa, 2004. "The Effects of Economic News on Bond Market Liquidity," Working Papers 04-16, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  21. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni, 2007. "Do Bonds Span Volatility Risk in the U.S. Treasury Market? A Specification Test for Affine Term Structure Models," CREATES Research Papers 2007-25, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  22. Bruce Mizrach & Christopher J. Neely, 2007. "The microstructure of the U.S. treasury market," Working Papers 2007-052, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  23. Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2006. "Informed and strategic order flow in the bond markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 874, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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