IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/rdevec/v26y2022i2p878-898.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign direct investment in Africa: Does financial development matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Effah Asamoah
  • Imhotep Paul Alagidede
  • Frank Adu

Abstract

The orthodox view is that uncertainty deters investments and, by extension, private capital inflows. Paying specific attention to the volatility of the domestic exchange rate, foreign direct investment (FDI), and financial development indicators, this study investigates the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on FDI and whether financial development matters in such association. We establish our empirical relationship with a system general methods of moments (GMM) two‐step robust estimator with orthogonal deviations. We found evidence supporting a nonlinear U‐shaped relationship between uncertainty and FDI and that the impact of uncertainty on FDI depends on varying levels of uncertainty. We also document that uncertainty deters FDI flows and that countries with a well‐functioning financial development can transform the adverse impact of volatility on FDI. However, curbing the adverse effect depends on the specific indicator and the threshold value of financial development (financial institutions or financial markets).

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Effah Asamoah & Imhotep Paul Alagidede & Frank Adu, 2022. "Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign direct investment in Africa: Does financial development matter?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 878-898, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:26:y:2022:i:2:p:878-898
    DOI: 10.1111/rode.12858
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12858
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/rode.12858?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    2. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    3. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
    4. Pindyck, Robert S, 1993. "A Note on Competitive Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 273-277, March.
    5. Tchamyou, Vanessa S. & Erreygers, Guido & Cassimon, Danny, 2019. "Inequality, ICT and financial access in Africa," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 169-184.
    6. Michael Effah Asamoah & Imhotep Paul Alagidede & Frank Adu, 2021. "Private Capital Flows, Real Sector Growth and Institutional Quality in Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 171-207, January.
    7. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
    8. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    9. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    10. Brambor, Thomas & Clark, William Roberts & Golder, Matt, 2006. "Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 63-82, January.
    11. Ibrahim A. Elbadawi, 1992. "Terms of Trade, Commercial Policy, and the Parallel Market for Foreign Exchange: An Empirical Model of the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of African Development, African Finance and Economic Association (AFEA), vol. 1(2), pages 1-26.
    12. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2009_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    14. Alfaro, Laura & Chanda, Areendam & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sayek, Selin, 2004. "FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 89-112, October.
    15. Robert Lensink & Oliver Morrissey, 2006. "Foreign Direct Investment: Flows, Volatility, and the Impact on Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 478-493, August.
    16. Nabamita Dutta* & Sanjukta Roy, 2011. "Foreign direct investment, financial development and political risks," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 44(2), pages 303-329, January-M.
    17. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Menla Ali, Faek & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2015. "Exchange rate uncertainty and international portfolio flows: A multivariate GARCH-in-mean approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 70-92.
    18. Balaban, Suzana & Živkov, Dejan & Milenković, Ivan, 2019. "Impact of an unexplained component of real exchange rate volatility on FDI: Evidence from transition countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(3).
    19. Agbloyor, Elikplimi Komla & Abor, Joshua Yindenaba & Adjasi, Charles Komla Delali & Yawson, Alfred, 2014. "Private capital flows and economic growth in Africa: The role of domestic financial markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 137-152.
    20. Zainab Jehan & Azooba Hamid, 2017. "Exchange rate volatility and capital inflows: role of financial development," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 16(3), pages 189-203, December.
    21. Daly, Kevin & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2013. "The determinants of home bias puzzle in equity portfolio investment in Australia," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 34-42.
    22. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2012. "The dynamic relation between foreign exchange rates and international portfolio flows: Evidence from Africa's capital markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 71-87.
    23. Urata, Shujiro & Kawai, Hiroki, 2000. "The Determinants of the Location of Foreign Direct Investment by Japanese Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 79-103, September.
    24. Shujiro Urata & Hiroki Kawai, 2000. "The Determinants of the Location of Foreign Direct Investment by Japanese Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (in Japanese)," Economic Analysis, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 158, pages 3-21, January.
    25. Swarnali Ahmed Hannan, 2017. "The Drivers of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets Post Global Financial Crisis," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(02), pages 1-28, June.
    26. Corden, W. Max, 1990. "Strategic trade policy : how new? how sensible?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 396, The World Bank.
    27. Abdur R. Chowdhury & Mark Wheeler, 2015. "The impact of output and exchange rate volatility on fixed private investment: evidence from selected G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(25), pages 2628-2641, May.
    28. Issouf Soumaré & Fulbert Tchana Tchana, 2015. "Causality between FDI and Financial Market Development: Evidence from Emerging Markets," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 29(suppl_1), pages 205-216.
    29. Jo Thori Lind & Halvor Mehlum, 2010. "With or Without U? The Appropriate Test for a U‐Shaped Relationship," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 109-118, February.
    30. Krishna Rao Akkina & Mehmet Ali Celebi, 2002. "The Determinants of Private Fixed Investment and the Relationship between Public and Private Capital Accumulation in Turkey," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(3), pages 243-254.
    31. Durham, J.B.J. Benson, 2004. "Absorptive capacity and the effects of foreign direct investment and equity foreign portfolio investment on economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 285-306, April.
    32. Andrew Abbott & David O. Cushman & Glauco De Vita, 2012. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Foreign Direct Investment Flows to Developing Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 95-107, February.
    33. Asamoah, Michael Effah & Adjasi, Charles K.D. & Alhassan, Abdul Latif, 2016. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, foreign direct investment and institutional quality: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 612-621.
    34. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
    35. Hasan, Iftekhar & Koetter, Michael & Wedow, Michael, 2009. "Regional growth and finance in Europe: Is there a quality effect of bank efficiency?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1446-1453, August.
    36. Hiroyuki Ito & Masahiro Kawai, 2018. "Quantity and Quality Measures of Financial Development: Implications for Macroeconomic Performance," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 14(5), pages 803-834, September.
    37. Kuo, Hsien-Chang & Lin, Dan & Lien, Donald & Wang, Lie-Huey & Yeh, Li-Jen, 2014. "Is there an inverse U-shaped relationship between pay and performance?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 347-357.
    38. Michael D. McKenzie, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
    39. Alfaro, Laura & Chanda, Areendam & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sayek, Selin, 2010. "Does foreign direct investment promote growth? Exploring the role of financial markets on linkages," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 242-256, March.
    40. Firat Demir, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and private investment in Argentina, Mexico and Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 567-571.
    41. Richard F. J. Haans & Constant Pieters & Zi-Lin He, 2016. "Thinking about U: Theorizing and testing U- and inverted U-shaped relationships in strategy research," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(7), pages 1177-1195, July.
    42. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    43. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-233, March.
    44. Silvia Dal Bianco & Nguyen Cong To Loan, 2017. "FDI Inflows, Price and Exchange Rate Volatility: New Empirical Evidence from Latin America," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, February.
    45. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    46. Hiroyuki Ito & Masahiro Kawai, 2018. "Quantity and Quality Measures of Financial Development: Implications for Macroeconomic Performance," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 14(5), pages 803-834, September.
    47. Stéphanie Guichard, 2017. "Findings of the recent literature on international capital flows: Implications and suggestions for further research," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1410, OECD Publishing.
    48. Lilia Cavallari & Stefano d'Addona, 2013. "Nominal and real volatility as determinants of FDI," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(18), pages 2603-2610, June.
    49. Asamoah, Michael Effah & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Adu, Frank, 2021. "Financial development, portfolio investments and the real economy in Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(4).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael Effah Asamoah & Imhotep Paul Alagidede & Frank Adu, 2022. "On the allocation puzzle and capital flows: Evidence from foreign direct investment and real sector growth in Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 370-380, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Asamoah, Michael Effah & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Adu, Frank, 2021. "Financial development, portfolio investments and the real economy in Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(4).
    2. Mourad Zmami & Ousama Ben-Salha, 2015. "The adjustment of plant-level investment to exchange rate fluctuations in Tunisia: do the size and the ownership structure matter?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2487-2505.
    3. Michael Effah Asamoah & Imhotep Paul Alagidede, 2023. "Foreign direct investment, real sector growth and financial development," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 626-643, January.
    4. Nataliia Osina, 2021. "Global governance and gross capital flows dynamics," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(3), pages 463-493, August.
    5. Asamoah, Michael Effah & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul, 2020. "Exploring the causal relationships and allocation puzzle between portfolio investments and real sector growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Shima’a Hanafy & Marcus Marktanner, 2019. "Sectoral FDI, absorptive capacity and economic growth – empirical evidence from Egyptian governorates," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 57-81, January.
    7. Ibrahim D. Raheem & Sara le Roux & Simplice A. Asongu, 2019. "The Role of Asymmetry and Uncertainties in the Capital Flows- Economic Growth Nexus," Research Africa Network Working Papers 19/047, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    8. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    9. Wasseem Mina & Louis Jaeck, 2015. "Labor Market Flexibility and FDI Flows: Evidence from Oil-Rich GCC and Middle Income Countries," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1501, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    10. Mohn, Klaus & Misund, Bård, 2009. "Investment and uncertainty in the international oil and gas industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 240-248, March.
    11. Segundo Camino-Mogro & Natalia Bermúdez-Barrezueta & Mary Armijos, 2023. "Is FDI a potential tool for boosting firm’s performance? Firm level evidence from Ecuador," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 341-391, April.
    12. Michael Effah Asamoah & Imhotep Paul Alagidede & Frank Adu, 2021. "Private Capital Flows, Real Sector Growth and Institutional Quality in Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 171-207, January.
    13. Martin Ruzima & Micheal Kofi Boachie, 2018. "Exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in BRICS economies," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 65-77, April.
    14. Azman-Saini, W.N.W. & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Law, Siong Hook, 2010. "Foreign direct investment, economic freedom and economic growth: International evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1079-1089, September.
    15. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2010. "On the sensitivity of firms' investment to cash flow and uncertainty," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(2), pages 286-306, April.
    16. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    17. Kaido Kepp & Kadri Männasoo, 2021. "Investment irreversibility and cyclical adversity: Implications for the financial performance of European manufacturing companies," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1665-1678, October.
    18. Henriques, Irene & Sadorsky, Perry, 2011. "The effect of oil price volatility on strategic investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 79-87, January.
    19. Ahmadi, Maryam & Manera, Matteo & Sadeghzadeh, Mehdi, 2019. "The investment-uncertainty relationship in the oil and gas industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    20. Gui-Diby, Steve Loris, 2014. "Impact of foreign direct investments on economic growth in Africa: Evidence from three decades of panel data analyses," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 248-256.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:26:y:2022:i:2:p:878-898. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1363-6669 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.