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Balance of payments accounting and exchange rate dynamics

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  • Müller-Plantenberg, Nikolas A.

Abstract

The balance of payments is an accounting identity. Many wonder how the current and capital accounts, which add up to zero, can influence exchange rates. This paper shows how payment flows arising from balance of payments imbalances affect the demands for different currencies in the foreign exchange market over time. Based on a dynamical system approach, the paper demonstrates how international payments evolve depending on the joint dynamic behaviour of different balance of payments components. It finds that international payments and exchange rates interact in fundamentally different ways depending on whether a country restricts its capital inflows and outflows, whether capital flows are accommodating or autonomous and whether the exchange rate is fixed, flexible or, say, governed by a crawling peg. Empirical evidence from major industrial countries as well as from countries hit by currency crises support the paper's theoretical predictions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Economics & Finance.

Volume (Year): 19 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 46-63

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Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:19:y:2010:i:1:p:46-63

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165

Related research

Keywords: Balance of payments accounting Exchange rate determination Capital flows Currency crises;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Müller-Plantenberg, Nikolas, 2012. "Balance of payments flows and exchange rate prediction in Japan," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2012/09, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
  2. Beladi, Hamid & Chakrabarti, Avik & Marjit, Sugata, 2010. "Exchange rate pass-through: A generalization," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 493-504, July.
  3. Müller-Plantenberg, Nikolas, 2012. "Boom-and-bust cycles marked by capital inflows, current account deterioration and a rise and fall of the real exchange rate," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2012/10, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).

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