Balance of payments flows and exchange rate prediction in Japan
AbstractMonetary models of exchange rates tend to focus on inflation differentials to explain exchange rate movements. This paper assesses the ability of currency flows to predict exchange rate changes. The focus is on Japan. Currency flows are assumed to depend on the level of the current account and on the international investment position, where the latter is used as a proxy for international debt repayments. A state space model is used to predict simultaneously the exchange rate and its determinants. Using rolling regressions and out-of-sample predictions, it is shown that a model featuring currency flows can predict the direction of exchange rate movements better than a random walk (with or without drift). However, as happens with standard macroeconomic models, the model is not able to outperform a random walk in terms of the mean square prediction error criterion.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History) in its series Working Papers in Economic Theory with number 2012/09.
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2012
Date of revision:
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Postal: Francisco Tomás y Valiente, 5, 28049 Madrid
Web page: http://www.uam.es/departamentos/economicas/analecon/default.html
More information through EDIRC
balance of payments flows; international investment position; exchange rate prediction; out-of-sample prediction; random walk.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-04-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2012-04-10 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2012-04-10 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MON-2012-04-10 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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