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Changing Beliefs and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Cross-Equation Restrictions with Drifting Parameters

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Author Info
Timothy Cogley (University of California, Davis)

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Abstract

This paper shows how to estimate a Bayesian VAR with drifting parameters and nonlinear cross-equation restrictions. The restrictions promote parsimony by reducing the dimension of the drifting component in conditional mean parameters. As an application, the paper investigates an anticipated-utility version of the expectations model of the term structure. The estimates suggest that changing beliefs matter for understanding the yield curve and point to an intriguing clue about risk premia. Local approximations to the mean yield spread are highly correlated with the variance of the trend short rate, suggesting a connection between uncertainty about the long-run target of monetary policy and risk premia on long-term bonds. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2005.01.004
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 8 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 420-451
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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:8:y:2005:i:2:p:420-451

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Staff Reports 270, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  2. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C, 2006. "Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge," CEPR Discussion Papers 5664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2009. "On the Unstable Relationship between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 15008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Monetary policy actions and long-run inflation expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Working Papers 12609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2007. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 389-472 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  6. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2008. "Bond positions, expectations, and the yield curve," Working Paper 2008-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sharon Kozicki & Gordon Sellon, 2005. "Longer-term perspectives on the yield curve and monetary policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 5-33. [Downloadable!]
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