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Forecasting Inflation via Experimental Stock Markets Some Results from Pilot Markets

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  • Michael Berlemann
  • Forrest Nelson

Abstract

While there are various techniques of inflation forecasting in use, none of them has proved to deliver consistently more accurate forecasts than the others. That is why most users of inflation forecasts monitor a variety of inflation indicators and forecasts and check them for consistency. This paper aims at contributing to an extension of themethods in use. We propose to conduct experimental inflation forecasting markets in order to uncover market participants' inflation expectations. While the markets directly deliver density forecasts of inflation they also allow to construct mean forecasts and a measure of forecast uncertainty. We also present evidence from a number of pilot markets underlining that the proposed method might enrich the arsenal of existing forecastingtechniques.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its series Ifo Working Paper Series with number Ifo Working Papers No. 10.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_10

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Keywords: Inflation forecast; field experiments; experimental stock markets.;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2011. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Design: Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaces CentER DP 2009-007)," Discussion Paper 2011-091, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Stefan Günnel & Karl-Heinz Tödter, 2009. "Does Benford’s Law hold in economic research and forecasting?," Empirica, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 273-292, August.
  3. Michael Berlemann & Kalina Dimitrova & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2000. "Assessing Market Expectations on Exchange Rates and Inflation: A Pilot Forecasting System for Bulgaria," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp759, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.

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