Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

'Passauer Wahlborse': Information Processing in a Political Market Experiment

Contents:

Author Info

  • Beckmann, Klaus
  • Werding, Martin

Abstract

The authors present design and results of the 'Passauer Wahlborse,' a field experiment built on call market institution, which successfully predicted the outcome of the 1994 German Bundestag election. Building on theoretical and experimental literature, they discuss the determinants of individual trading behavior in a field environment and point at difficulties in analyzing the data generated by political market experiments. While previous explanations for the predictive success of these markets--i.e., the 'marginal trader hypothesis'--do not appear wholly convincing, the authors proffer an alternative that focuses on information costs and show that their findings are consistent with basic tenets from information economics. Copyright 1996 by WWZ and Helbing & Lichtenhahn Verlag AG

Download Info

To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Kyklos.

Volume (Year): 49 (1996)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 171-204

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:49:y:1996:i:2:p:171-204

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0023-5962

Order Information:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0023-5962

Related research

Keywords:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Berlemann, Michael & Schmidt, Carsten, 2001. "Predictive accuracy of political stock markets: Empirical evidence from a European perspective," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,57, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  2. Michael Berlemann, 2004. "Experimentelle Aktienmärkte als Instrumente der Konjunkturprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(16), pages 21-29, 08.
  3. Mikuláš Gangur & Miroslav Plevný, 2014. "Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(36), pages 578, May.
  4. Berlemann, Michael, 1999. "Wahlprognosen: Politische Wahlbörsen versus traditionelle Meinungsforschung," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 01/99, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  5. Berlemann, Michael, 2001. "Forecasting inflation via electronic markets: Results from a prototype market," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 06/01, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  6. Gregor Bruggelambert, 2004. "Information and efficiency in political stock markets: using computerized markets to predict election results," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(7), pages 753-768.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:49:y:1996:i:2:p:171-204. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.