Low inflation: the surprise of the 1990s

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Low inflation: the surprise of the 1990s

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Dean Croushore

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Dean Croushore

Abstract

For most of the 1990s, forecasters have been predicting an upturn in inflation. Yet, over that same period, the United States has experienced stable or declining inflation. Why have forecasts been at odds with reality? And why does it matter? In this article, Dean Croushore considers some answers to these questions and explains why inflation is the economic surprise of the decade.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its journal Business Review.

Volume (Year): (1998)
Issue (Month): Jul ()
Pages: 3-12
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpbr:y:1998:i:jul:p:3-12

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References listed on IDEAS
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Dean Croushore, 1996. "Inflation forecasts: how good are they?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 15-25. [Downloadable!]
Dean Croushore, 1993. "Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-15. [Downloadable!]
Bankim Chadha & Eswar Prasad, 1994. "Are Prices Countercyclical? Evidence from the G-7," IMF Working Papers 94/91, International Monetary Fund.
Other versions:
- Chadha, Bankim & Prasad, Eswar, 1994. "Are prices countercyclical? Evidence from the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 239-257, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Staiger, Douglas & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Judd, John P & Trehan, Bharat, 1995. "The Cyclical Behavior of Prices: Interpreting the Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 789-97, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Cooley, Thomas F. & Ohanian, Lee E., 1991. "The cyclical behavior of prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 25-60, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Cooley, T.F. & Ohanian, L.E., 1989. "The Cyclical Behavior Of Prices," RCER Working Papers 188, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
Mary Daly, 1997. "Labor market effects of welfare reform," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Aug 29. [Downloadable!]

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