Directional forecasts of GDP and inflation: a joint evaluation with an application to Federal Reserve predictions
AbstractMany studies have undertaken separate analyses of the Fed's forecasts of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and inflation. This article presents a method for jointly evaluating the direction of change predictions of these variables. We conclude that some of the inflation forecasts, examined separately, were not valuable. However, the joint pattern of GDP and inflation projections was generally in accord with the economy's movements. '… directional forecasting … is now an increasingly popular metric for forecasting performance….' (Pesaran and Timmermann, 2004, 414)
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.
Volume (Year): 42 (2010)
Issue (Month): 18 ()
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- Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2012. "Is the Purchasing Managers' Index useful for assessing the economy's strength? A directional analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1302-1311.
- Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012.
"A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts,"
2012-2, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Sinclair, Tara M. & Gamber, Edward N. & Stekler, Herman & Reid, Elizabeth, 2012. "Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 309-314.
- Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carrow, 2012. "Evaluating a Vector of the Fed's Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-3, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Are government and IMF forecasts useful? An application of a new market-timing test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 118-120.
- Baghestani, Hamid & Khallaf, Ashraf, 2012. "Predictions of growth in U.S. corporate profits: Asymmetric vs. symmetric loss," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 222-229.
- Gro Klaeboe & Anders Lund Eriksrud & Stein-Erik Fleten, 2013. "Benchmarking time series based forecasting models for electricity balancing market prices," Working Papers 2013-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
- Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "Evaluating A Vector Of The Fed’S Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
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